BlockBeats reported on Aug. 4 that Polymarket trader TwoEyes added heavily to short positions in BTC and Strategy-linked assets on Hyperliquid earlier in the day, according to monitoring by TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight.
The fresh shorts totaled about $1.404 million. By press time, the trader had built a combined bearish position worth about $2.413 million around that thesis.
- Short 13,000 MSTR, with position value of about $1.223 million, an average entry of $93.68 and a liquidation price of $110.92;
- Short 13.4011 BTC, with position value of about $854,000, an average entry of $63,679.4 and a liquidation price of $97,072.8;
- Short 3,661 STRC, with position value of about $336,000, an average entry of $91.72 and a liquidation price of $109.03.
The three positions were showing a combined unrealized loss of about $5,739 at the time of publication.
Price action had not yet moved clearly in line with the trader’s view. The address had also placed a non-reduce-only STRC sell order at $91.84, seeking to add another 4,100.9 units to the short. The notional value of that order was about $377,000.
Prediction market exposure points in the same direction
The Hyperliquid activity was not the only signal. Tracing results showed that the address corresponds to the Polymarket account TwoEyes. Its active prediction-market positions were worth about $77,300, including:
- A “Yes” position on “The Fed will hike 25 basis points in September” worth about $35,400;
- A “Yes” position on “The U.S. will invade Iran before 2027” worth about $26,200.
Those two positions added up to about $61,600 and were carrying an unrealized loss of about $6,664.
On one side, the account is betting on a rate hike and war-related risk. On the other, it is short BTC, MSTR and STRC. Taken together, the two sets of positions point to a view centered on rising geopolitical risk, expectations for tighter policy and pressure on risk assets.
BlockBeats added one note of caution: no new trades from TwoEyes had appeared on Polymarket on Aug. 4. At this stage, the data only confirms that the trader’s cross-platform positions are aligned in direction. It does not prove that the account holds any non-public information.