PPP’s prediction-market tracker showed that the Polymarket contract on whether the United States and Iran will have an “effective ceasefire” by July 31 climbed to 59%, up 19% on the day. The market resolves to “Yes” if the US does not carry out a defined military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the deadline, and to “No” otherwise. Qualifying actions are narrowly defined as US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes directly targeting Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-ground missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Several categories are excluded, such as intercepted munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale clashes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery fire, and threats or authorizations that are not carried out. If there is disagreement over whether an action occurred, who carried it out, or when it happened, the market will wait for consensus across official information and credible media reports. If no consensus emerges after three full calendar days, the resolution will be based on all available information at that time.
PPP’s prediction-market tracker showed that the Polymarket contract on whether the United States and Iran will reach an “effective ceasefire” by July 31 rose to 59%, gaining 19% in a single day.
The contract hinges on a 14-day window without defined military action
The market will resolve by the stated deadline. It settles to “Yes” if the US does not take a qualifying military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”
Qualifying military action is limited to US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes directly targeting Iranian territory. That definition includes bombs, air-to-ground missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
Several categories are explicitly excluded
Actions that do not count include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale clashes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and threats or authorized actions that are not carried out.
Disputes will be resolved using official information and credible media reports
If there is a dispute over whether a military action occurred, who was responsible, or when it took place, the market will wait for consensus across official information and credible media reporting before making a determination.
If disagreement remains after three full calendar days, the decision will be made based on all information available at that point. Resolution sources include official statements from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, along with credible media reports.
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