PPP market-tracking data shows that on Polymarket, the contract on whether the United States and Iran will hold peace talks before Aug. 7 has dropped to 9%, down 14% over the past 24 hours. The market will resolve based on whether representatives of both governments begin the next round of formal high-level peace talks before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Aug. 7. To qualify, the talks must involve senior representatives acting in an official capacity with government authorization and must be capable of directly conducting or materially advancing diplomatic negotiations. In-person diplomacy conducted through a designated mediator, coordinator, or intermediary can also count, provided senior representatives from both the US and Iran are part of the same formal diplomatic process and both governments are aware of and have authorized it. The two sides do not need to be in the same location at the same time.
PPP market-tracking data shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the contract titled “US-Iran peace talks before August 7” has fallen to 9%, a 14% decline over the past 24 hours.
How the market will resolve
The event will be settled based on whether representatives of the United States and Iran begin the next round of formal high-level peace talks before the stated deadline, which is 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
For talks to qualify, they must be an in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round involving senior representatives from both sides. Those representatives must participate in an official capacity, be authorized by their respective governments, and be able to directly conduct or materially advance diplomatic negotiations.
What also counts under the rules
In-person diplomacy conducted through a designated mediator, coordinator, or intermediary can also qualify. But senior representatives from both the US and Iran must be participating in the same formal diplomatic process, and both governments must be aware of and authorize that process.
The rules also state that representatives from the two sides do not need to be in the same location at the same time.
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