PPP, a prediction-market monitoring tool, said Polymarket has launched a market on when the United States and Iran will achieve a two-week ceasefire.
The current probabilities for the listed dates were 5% for July 18, 15% for July 24, 23% for July 31, 43% for Aug. 14, and 54% for Aug. 31.
How the market resolves
Under the market rules, the contract resolves to “Yes” if the United States does not take any military action against Iran between the market’s creation and 11:59 p.m. on the specified end date. If such action takes place, the contract resolves to “No.”
The 14-day window begins on the calendar date, in Eastern Time, of the most recent qualifying military action. It runs through 12 p.m. Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action within that period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market is treated as “Yes.”
What counts as a qualifying military action
The rules define a qualifying military action as a U.S.-initiated airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike directed at Iran.
Air operations may include bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface attacks include one-way attack drones as well as cruise or ballistic missiles.
What is excluded
The rules also state that the following do not qualify: munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small-arms fire; ground incursions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, cannons, mortars, and rocket artillery, including multiple launch rocket systems; small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, short-range airstrike drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; and any threat, authorization, or statement of force that has not been acted upon.