Polymarket data showed that, as of 00:50 UTC on Sept. 28, the market was pricing a 67.5% chance that WTI crude oil would rise above $95 per barrel before the end of September. Total volume in the contract reached $8.43 million, while trading volume over the past 24 hours stood at $95,000. According to Techub, citing 99Bitcoins, the move in market-implied odds was tied directly to geopolitical developments. Earlier, former U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and November WTI futures then rose 1.87% to $94.14. The report added that sharp swings in oil prices are part of a broader market backdrop that could affect the pricing of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Traders are also treating WTI price action as a leading signal for macro-driven volatility in the coming days.
Prediction market Polymarket showed that, as of 00:50 UTC on Sept. 28, the probability of WTI crude oil rising above $95 per barrel before the end of September stood at 67.5%.
Total volume in the market reached $8.43 million, with $95,000 traded over the past 24 hours.
Geopolitical event linked to the shift in odds
According to Techub, citing 99Bitcoins, the change in market probability was directly tied to a geopolitical event. Earlier, former U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing November WTI futures up 1.87% to $94.14.
Traders watch oil as a macro volatility signal
The analysis said sharp moves in oil prices are part of a broader market backdrop and may affect the pricing of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Traders are treating WTI price action as a leading indicator of macro-driven volatility over the next few days.
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