PPP’s prediction-market tracker shows that on Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude falling to $95 per barrel in November climbed to 88%, up 26% over the past 24 hours. Odaily, citing Iran’s state news agency IRNA, said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the Supreme Leader had granted the government partial authority in negotiations. After the remarks, international oil prices fell sharply while gold and silver moved higher. The market interpreted the development as a sign that Iran’s negotiating stance could be becoming more flexible and that the government’s ability to reach an agreement with the United States may have improved. The report also noted that Iran’s strategic decisions remain in the hands of the Supreme Leader, meaning any progress in talks would still require alignment between the Supreme Leader and the negotiating team. Earlier, Iran had proposed a two-day framework plan that would conditionally reopen the Strait of Hormuz if its demands were met, including lifting the blockade, releasing frozen funds, and easing sanctions.
PPP’s prediction-market tracker showed that on Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude falling to $95 per barrel in November rose to 88%, up 26% in the past 24 hours.
According to IRNA, cited by Odaily, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that the Supreme Leader had granted the government partial authority in negotiations. After the statement, international oil prices dropped sharply, while gold and silver prices moved straight higher. The market took the remarks as a sign that Iran’s negotiating position could be more flexible and that the government may have a stronger ability to reach an agreement with the United States.
The report added that Iran’s strategic decisions are still controlled by the Supreme Leader, so any progress in negotiations would require approval from both the Supreme Leader and the negotiating team.
Earlier, Iran had already put forward a two-day framework proposal to conditionally reopen the Strait of Hormuz, provided that Tehran’s demands were met, including lifting the blockade, releasing frozen funds, and easing sanctions.
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