Polymarket trader xm39 has started cutting both sides of a trade built around a possible escalation in the Middle East, according to TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, on Aug. 28.
The trader had previously bet on "U.S. invasion of Iran by 2027" on Polymarket while also holding a long crude oil position. TradingBeats said xm39 began reducing both positions yesterday, and had flipped to a short on the oil side by early this morning.
WTI long closed before prediction shares were sold
The linked address 0x40f closed 175,900 WTI long contracts yesterday, with turnover of about $14.253 million and a realized loss of roughly $282,000.
About two minutes later, xm39 started selling the war-related prediction position on Polymarket. The trader sold 1.1823 million shares of "U.S. invasion of Iran by 2027" Yes across 50 trades. The market’s implied probability at execution was about 14.1%, and the sale recovered around $166,700.
That disposal represented about 75.5% of the position, leaving 383,100 shares. As of publication, the market’s implied probability had dropped to 12.5%.
TradingBeats said the remaining 383,100 Yes shares were accumulated at an average implied probability of about 23.28%. Their current value was around $47,900, with an unrealized loss of about $41,300, or 46.3%.
$10.18 million CL short opened after the overnight rebound
Earlier today, the address built a cumulative short of 122,500 CL contracts. It now holds a short position worth about $10.183 million on 20x cross margin, with an unrealized profit of about $30,000, a return of roughly 5.9%, and a liquidation price of $93.09.
The address also placed seven stop-loss orders between $83.522 and $84.001, covering about 91.3% of the current short position.
WTI crude rose 1.6% overnight to $83.53. The BlockBeats report said the move was mainly driven by fading expectations for U.S.-Iran talks and renewed supply risk. Even so, oil was still down about 4.3% for the week. The 0x40f short was opened after that overnight rebound.
Trader had previously added to the oil long
An earlier report said xm39 had expected crude to keep rising and had increased the position to $48 million.
TradingBeats also said its on-chain perpetuals and address analytics tool is now live, with support for real-time Hyperliquid data and address-based tracking of whale activity.