Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are still pricing in deeper downside for Bitcoin. On Kalshi, the market assigns a 66% chance that Bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year, a 50% chance of dropping under $50,000, and a 31% chance of slipping below $40,000. On Polymarket, traders put the odds of a move below $55,000 at about 67%.
ETF outflows remain a major pressure point
The bearish pricing is tied closely to fund flows. Data cited from SoSo Value shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.4 billion in outflows in May. In the first two trading days of June, another $1 billion left those products, setting a record. That pace points to weaker institutional demand and a more cautious stance toward Bitcoin exposure.
K33 Research also said Bitcoin is competing with AI-related stocks for investor attention. The firm's view is that many investors see the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin as too high, especially while AI names continue to deliver strong returns and major equity indexes keep printing new highs. Money rotates where performance is strongest. That shift is now showing up clearly in sentiment markets.
Bitcoin trails gold in forward expectations
On Polymarket, traders give Bitcoin only a 30% chance of outperforming gold by 2026. Over the past year, gold has gained about 33%, while Bitcoin has fallen roughly 37%. The comparison captures a broader change in market positioning: confidence in Bitcoin relative to a traditional defensive asset has weakened.
Stablecoins gain share as traders stay defensive
Capital is not leaving crypto altogether. As Bitcoin moved toward $66,000, the market share of USDT and USDC expanded, according to the source material. That suggests traders are increasing cash-like positions inside the crypto market rather than rushing to buy the dip. The stance is cautious, but it is still active positioning.
Prediction markets are becoming a sentiment gauge
Kalshi and Polymarket have increasingly been treated as useful indicators of crypto sentiment. Unlike traditional fear-and-greed measures, these markets reflect prices backed by real money. Current contracts imply that bearish expectations remain firmly in place. Whether the 31% probability of Bitcoin falling below $40,000 is overdone is still an open question, but the market is clearly paying to express that view.