Analyst says PUMP may be undervalued in the short term, but its long-term value capture remains unclear

News Editor

2026-09-11 05:04:31

Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens examined whether PUMP should be seen as undervalued or fundamentally lacking value, and argued that the market may be underpricing PumpFun’s business fundamentals while still failing to resolve the token’s long-term value capture problem. According to the analysis, PumpFun is generating roughly $677 million in annualized revenue and PUMP is trading at about 2.8x price-to-sales, below comparable revenue-linked tokens. PumpFun also directs 50% of protocol revenue to programmatic buybacks and burns, which at current revenue and price levels would equal roughly 17.6% of circulating supply repurchased per year. In addition, about 77% of tokens allocated to the team and investors remain unmoved, a factor that could ease short-term supply pressure from insider selling and unlocks. Still, the token’s official documents state that PUMP does not represent equity in PumpFun and gives holders no rights to revenue, profit, dividends, or cash flow. PumpFun’s roughly $2 billion treasury belongs to Baton Corp rather than PUMP holders, and the current buyback arrangement is set to expire in April 2027 unless extended.

On Sept. 11, Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens published an analysis asking whether PUMP is undervalued or simply lacks durable value. Her view was that the market may be underestimating PumpFun’s business fundamentals, while the token’s ability to capture that value over the long run remains unresolved.

PumpFun fundamentals and current valuation

Devens wrote that PumpFun is currently generating about $677 million in annualized revenue. PUMP is trading at roughly 2.8x price-to-sales, a level she said sits below comparable revenue-based tokens.

PumpFun is also using 50% of protocol revenue for programmatic buybacks and burns of PUMP. Based on current revenue and price, that would amount to repurchasing about 17.6% of the circulating supply each year.

At the same time, around 77% of tokens allocated to the team and investors have not moved. In the analysis, those factors could help ease short-term supply pressure tied to insider selling and token unlocks.

Limits on long-term value capture

Devens also pointed to a structural issue. Official PUMP documents explicitly state that the token does not represent equity in PumpFun and does not give holders rights to revenue, profit, dividends, or cash flow.

She added that PumpFun’s roughly $2 billion treasury belongs to Baton Corp, not to PUMP holders. That leaves open the question of how much of the company’s operating value can ultimately flow through to the token.

The current programmatic buyback arrangement is scheduled to expire in April 2027, and whether it will be extended remains uncertain.

Base-case upside and downside scenario

Under a base-case scenario, Devens placed PUMP’s valuation range between $0.0108 and $0.0205. That is about 2.3x to 4.4x above the token’s Sept. 9 price.

She also outlined a downside case: if business activity weakens and valuation multiples compress further, PUMP could fall by 59% to 76%.

Bottom line from the analysis

Her conclusion was that PUMP may be undervalued in the near term. Over a longer horizon, though, the token’s value will depend on whether buybacks continue and whether the project gives clearer guidance on the economic relationship between the token and the underlying business.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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