QCP Capital noted that one week after the Jackson Hole symposium, market focus has shifted to the sustainability of hawkish rate repricing. Weak labor data and comments from Fed Governor Waller have brought the September policy discussion back to a choice between holding rates steady or hiking. The U.S. Treasury will launch its first expanded long-dated bond buyback on September 9, alongside concentrated issuance of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries. Next week's CPI data will also be watched. In crypto, spot demand has rebounded, with BTC trading in the $76,700–$81,500 range. ETF flows recovered strongly on Thursday after prior outflows. Leverage remains controlled, and resistance comes from supply near highs rather than crowded long positions. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls report will be a key test.
Market Shifts to Hawkish Rate Repricing
A week after Jackson Hole, the focus has moved off Fed Chair Waller’s comments and onto one thing: how long this hawkish rate repricing can stick, QCP Capital said in a note on September 4. Waller said price stability is still the Fed’s main worry. But weaker labor data and fresh comments from Governor Waller have shoved the September debate back into a simple fork: hold rates or hike them.
Macro Events on the Horizon
The U.S. Treasury starts its first expanded long-dated bond buyback on September 9. Same day, the market also gets a heavy dose of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury issuance. And next week’s CPI print will be watched hard for any hint on where inflation is headed.
Crypto Spot Demand Recovers
Crypto spot demand has picked up again. Bitcoin moved between $76,700 and $81,500 this week, while ETF flows bounced back sharply on Thursday after earlier outflows. Leverage still looks contained. The pressure is coming from spot supply near the highs, not from overcrowded longs. Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report is the next real test.
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