QCP Capital said in its latest Market Colour report that U.S. stocks closed mixed last Friday, as the S&P 500 rose 0.05% to 7,412, the Nasdaq fell 0.64% to 24,976, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.46% to 51,947.
The firm said interest-rate expectations remain at the center of the market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped back to around 4.67% on Friday after briefly climbing to its highest level since January 2025. QCP added that weaker oil prices provided some support for yields. The U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, was largely steady near 101.4.
Markets turn to Wednesday’s FOMC decision
QCP said the next key event is Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee rate decision. Markets broadly expect the federal funds target range to remain unchanged, but investors will be watching the policy statement and remarks from Fed Chair Warsh for updated signals on how officials assess inflation and the growth outlook.
Crypto outperformed stocks in July, QCP says
On digital assets, QCP said crypto has held up better than traditional equities in July despite pressure from the macro backdrop. As of now, BTC and ETH are up about 11.6% and 24.6% this month, respectively, which the report said points to market resilience.
Still, flows into U.S. spot BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds have cooled. On July 24, listed U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs recorded combined net outflows of about $311 million, ending a seven-session run of net inflows. QCP said ETF flows remain an important gauge of institutional participation and market sentiment.
Regulation and derivatives positioning remain in focus
The report also said the market continues to watch U.S. digital-asset regulatory developments, with the proposed CLARITY Act still a key point of attention for crypto participants.
In options, recent data shows investors have added downside protection again, reflecting a renewed preference for hedging after the pullback in risk assets. At the same time, short-dated implied volatility in ETH options remains above BTC, while perpetual futures funding rates stay positive. QCP said that points to a market that is still net long overall, even as investors hedge against short-term macro uncertainty.