QCP Capital said market pressure is building after the U.S. and Iran clashed again over the weekend, 12 days after signing a memorandum of understanding. The two sides accused each other of violating a 60-day ceasefire, clouding the outlook for a second round of talks. Oil has stayed near $70, but QCP said prices could still move higher if supply returns more slowly than expected.
In crypto, implied volatility for BTC and ETH has kept rising. Demand has increased for July BTC puts struck at $55,000 to $58,000, pointing to continued hedging interest. At the same time, the market also saw a large buy order for a $64,000 BTC call expiring on the 17th.
QCP attributed weaker sentiment to continued net outflows from spot ETFs, concerns tied to Strategy, and pressure in U.S. equities. The firm said traders this week will be watching remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum, along with ISM manufacturing PMI and U.S. nonfarm payrolls. With holiday-thinned liquidity, QCP expects volatility to stay elevated.
According to QCP Capital, market pressure has increased after the U.S. and Iran engaged in fresh military conflict over the weekend, 12 days after signing a memorandum of understanding. Both sides accused each other of breaching a 60-day ceasefire, putting the outlook for a second round of talks under strain.
Oil has remained near $70. QCP said there is still upside risk if supply recovers more slowly than expected.
BTC and ETH implied volatility keeps rising
In crypto markets, implied volatility for BTC and ETH has continued to climb. Demand has picked up for July BTC put options with strikes between $55,000 and $58,000. The market also saw a large buy order for a $64,000 BTC call expiring on the 17th.
QCP said sentiment has been dragged lower by continued net outflows from spot ETFs, concerns related to Strategy, and pressure on U.S. stocks.
Focus turns to Fed remarks and U.S. data this week
Markets will watch Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaking at the ECB forum, as well as the ISM manufacturing PMI and U.S. nonfarm payrolls. With liquidity expected to stay thin ahead of the holiday, QCP expects volatility to remain elevated.
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