Rain Trade has launched an onchain prediction market during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, positioning user-created markets and public, verifiable records at the center of its model. The launch lands as the prediction market sector faces sharper scrutiny over transparency, promotion, and the degree of control platforms hold over the systems they run.
For years, prediction markets have been marketed as a cleaner signal of public sentiment, with real money attached to possible outcomes. That pitch is now facing pressure. Recent reporting around industry leader Polymarket raised questions about whether paid influencers and simulated trades blurred the line between genuine market activity and marketing, widening the debate over how forecasting platforms are created, promoted, and governed.
Users can create markets on nearly any topic
Rain Trade is presenting a different structure. According to the platform, users can launch prediction markets on almost any topic, event, or question. Markets can be public, created in any language, or restricted to selected groups through invite-only access. To reduce onboarding friction, the platform also lets users fund accounts across multiple blockchain networks and automatically converts assets to enable USDT trading.
The timing is tied directly to the World Cup. Rain Trade says the event creates a constant stream of moments that users may want to forecast, from goals and injuries to sudden turns in a match. Instead of relying on a centralized team to decide which conversations deserve a market, the platform allows participants to create markets around the moments they consider important. Mike Tyson is part of the launch campaign.
Rain Protocol CEO argues for community-led market creation
Rain Trade is built on Rain Protocol, which it describes as the decentralized protocol layer behind the product. Roy Shaham, CEO of Rain Protocol, said traditional prediction markets have historically focused on controlling what people are allowed to predict instead of giving them the ability to create markets themselves. He said Rain Trade is designed to let users decide what deserves a market, with the World Cup serving as a live setting to show what community-shaped prediction markets can look like.
Onchain records and outcome resolution options
The platform says its infrastructure is designed to make market activity visible and verifiable. Market creation, trading activity, and outcomes are recorded onchain, creating a public record that cannot be changed after the fact. For outcome resolution, Rain Trade supports both AI-powered and manual methods, giving market creators flexibility in how results are determined.
Rain Trade also offers a direct incentive for participation. Market creators receive 1% of the trading volume generated by the markets they launch. The structure is meant to reward user contribution rather than leave market selection entirely in the hands of platform operators. As the sector expands, the debate is moving past accuracy alone and toward a broader question: who creates the markets, how they are promoted, and how much control the platform retains.