Raoul Pal says global liquidity is moving back into focus, and he sees that shift as a constructive backdrop for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. In his view, capital had been flowing toward artificial intelligence during periods of shrinking liquidity because investors were chasing sectors with the strongest perceived growth when fresh liquidity was limited. He says that pattern had become especially visible in AI.
What has changed, according to Pal, is that M2 money supply and broader monetary indicators are turning positive again. He argues that this could restart inflows into digital assets and improve momentum across the crypto market. Pal, whose Real Vision platform is known for macro analysis of global asset markets, describes the current setup as a more supportive investment environment rather than a late-cycle peak.
Bitcoin sits below its long-term fair-value zone
To support that view, Pal points to Bitcoin’s long-term logarithmic regression channel. He says Bitcoin is trading about 1.5 standard deviations below fair value, an area that has historically been associated with oversold conditions. He links similar valuation ranges to accumulation phases seen in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Those setups were followed by recoveries, though he does not present them as precise timing tools for a reversal.
As of June 26, Bitcoin was trading near $59,500. Based on that framework, Pal characterizes the current market as the midpoint of the cycle rather than the end of one.
Ethereum and SUI also show depressed readings
Pal also highlights Ethereum and SUI. For Ethereum, he points to monthly DeMark indicators that suggest a possible reversal setup. For SUI, he says the token is trading roughly 1.8 standard deviations below its trend channel, which he reads as a sign of meaningful undervaluation. DeMark indicators are used in technical analysis to identify trend exhaustion and potential turning points, while a regression channel tracks how far price has moved away from its long-term trend line.
On adjusted metrics, Pal says the risk-reward profile across crypto assets looks attractive. He contrasts that with semiconductors, which he describes as heavily extended, trading about 3.8 standard deviations above trend, while digital assets remain at much lower valuations.
Preference remains with layer-one networks
Pal says he still favors assets such as Ethereum, Solana, and SUI, which he views as coordination layers for the digital economy. He argues that future AI systems will rely more heavily on blockchain infrastructure. On that basis, he has reduced exposure to high-growth technology and semiconductor stocks and shifted more of his portfolio toward layer-one assets that he considers undervalued.
The dollar and rates could shape the next move
Pal says global liquidity remains the single most important force behind crypto price action. He notes that Bitcoin’s correlation with global liquidity has stayed strong, in a range of 85% to 87%, while liquidity itself has been trending higher since 2022.
He also warns that a strong US dollar could limit liquidity expansion. If interest rates fall, the dollar could weaken, potentially increasing capital available to markets and improving demand conditions for crypto assets. Pal adds that if market leadership shifts, sectors leading today may lose momentum while other areas move into focus.