Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said in an April 7 post on X that the world has entered an early stage of what he described as a global war, comparing current conditions to 1938. His point was blunt: headlines focused on the Strait of Hormuz or oil spikes miss the larger shift now taking shape across several theaters.
Dalio maps current tensions to his “Big Cycle” framework
Using the “Big Cycle” model from his book on changing world orders, Dalio argued that world wars do not begin on one clean date. They build through connected conflicts that widen over time. He pointed to the Russia-Ukraine-Europe-US war, the Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Syria war, and the US-Israel-Gulf states-Iran confrontation.
He added that these armed conflicts are unfolding alongside trade, technology, and capital wars. In his framework, the world has now reached step 9, a phase defined by multi-front conflict and stronger domestic suppression of opposition. Dalio said this resembles the transition periods of 1913-1914 and 1938-1939, when earlier clashes gave way to broader war.
Two blocs are taking shape as the US faces overstretch
Dalio said alliance lines are now visible through treaties and UN voting patterns. On one side, he placed the US, Europe, Israel, Japan, and Australia. On the other, he grouped China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
He also focused on strategic endurance. According to Dalio, China benefits from strong energy resilience within its alignment with Russia and Iran, including purchases of 80% to 90% of Iran’s oil, plus Russian backing and large reserves. The US, while an energy exporter, is carrying a different burden: Dalio said it maintains 750 to 800 military bases overseas, leaving it heavily “overextended” and exposed in a multi-front conflict.
Dalio assigns probabilities to flashpoints over the next five years
In an appendix, Dalio used five drivers — debt and the economy, internal order, external order, technological advances, and natural disasters — to estimate the odds of major conflict escalation over the next five years. He described the Iran-US-Israel war as already underway and intensifying. He put the probability of a Taiwan-US-China conflict at about 30% to 40%, with the highest-risk period possibly in 2028.
He estimated the risk of the Ukraine-Russia war expanding at 30% to 40%, while conflict tied to North Korea was placed at 40% to 50%. Dalio also wrote that the probability of at least one major conflict escalating within five years is above 50%. In the same analysis, he argued that victory in war often goes not to the strongest military power, but to the side most able to absorb pain over time.