A report tracking market performance across seven global crisis episodes found that Bitcoin delivered stronger 60-day returns than both gold and the S&P 500 in most of the cases reviewed. According to the study, Bitcoin posted an average gain of about 18% across the seven windows, while the S&P 500 and gold recorded average gains of roughly 3% and 4%.
Bitcoin led in most of the crisis periods reviewed
The report compared reactions after events including rising tensions between the United States and Iran, the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the U.S. regional banking crisis. After the U.S.-Iran standoff, the S&P 500 fell 7% over 60 days and gold rose 6%, while Bitcoin climbed 20%. In March 2020, as markets were shaken by the pandemic, all three assets rebounded, but Bitcoin led again with a 21% gain, versus 3% for gold and 2% for the S&P 500.
When the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, gold fell 9% during the measured period, the S&P 500 rose 3%, and Bitcoin advanced 15%. During the U.S. regional banking turmoil in March 2023, Bitcoin recorded its strongest crisis-era result in the report, gaining 32%. Gold rose 11% in the same window, while the S&P 500 added 4%.
The only weaker showing came during the 2024 yen shock
The study identified one exception: the financial shock tied to the Japanese yen in August 2024. In that episode, Bitcoin gained only 3%, trailing both the S&P 500 at 7% and gold at 9%. Outside that case, Bitcoin generated higher returns than both assets in six of the seven incidents covered by the report.
The report also noted that the S&P 500 and gold each turned negative in two of the events examined, while Bitcoin remained positive in every crisis window studied. Even its weakest result stayed above zero. That finding feeds into a long-running debate over whether Bitcoin should be treated as a safe-haven asset, though the report stopped short of making that classification.
Latest Iran-related data is still incomplete
The most recent figures in the report come from the crisis tied to Iran that began in February 2026. Thirteen days into that episode, both stocks and gold had moved into negative territory, while Bitcoin was already up 14%. The full 60-day window has not closed yet, so the final result could still change with developments in Iran and broader macro conditions.
Based on the completed cases, the report’s main observation is narrow but clear: except for the 2024 yen-related shock, Bitcoin produced the highest return during most of the crisis periods reviewed. The study focused on observed market behavior rather than giving Bitcoin a definitive safe-haven label.