Retail investors have turned markedly more bearish on U.S. stocks as oil prices climb again and Treasury yields remain elevated, according to CNBC.
The latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that about 53% of respondents are bearish on U.S. equities over the next six months. That was up by roughly 14 percentage points from the previous week and marked the highest level since May 2025. The share of bullish investors fell to below 29%, down about 10 percentage points in a single week and the lowest reading in about a year.
Oil and bond yields are driving investor concern
CNBC said the main backdrop for that shift is another rise in crude prices during the Iran war, along with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield holding near 5% in recent weeks.
Morgan’s commodities team said it would stop trying to predict when the conflict will end and in what form that outcome will come.
Strategists point to contrarian signals
Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Wealth, said AAII pessimism is nearing levels that are often associated with market bottoms from a contrarian investing standpoint. He added that only about 30% of index components are currently trading above their 50-day moving average. If that share falls below 30%, it could indicate the market has entered oversold territory.
CNN’s Fear and Greed Index has also shifted from “Greed” a month ago to “Fear.”
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said investors should not overinterpret sentiment indicators and noted that professional investors are more optimistic. Even so, he said that viewed only through the AAII contrarian signal, the market now has the conditions for a rebound.
Lerner also said investors should not stop buying because of short-term sentiment readings. In his view, the potential upside in the current long-term bull market still exceeds the downside risk, and the recent pullback in technology stocks may offer an entry opportunity.