A Reuters poll cited by BlockBeats found that most economists now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week and deliver at least one more increase by the end of March next year, reversing an earlier fragile consensus that rates would stay unchanged. After last Friday’s inflation report, 85% of respondents said the Fed is likely to lift rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, taking the policy range to 3.75%-4.00%. Reuters said that would mark the first rate hike since July 2023. The survey also showed that nearly 53% of forecasters now expect at least one additional hike by the end of March, compared with 56% last week who had expected rates to remain unchanged. The once-dominant view that rate cuts would arrive by 2027 has also faded. Bank of America senior economist Stephen Juneau said the Fed would likely only back away from further hikes if incoming data turned very weak. He added that he has expected three rate hikes this year since June, and said the latest inflation report made the outlook clearer.
According to a Reuters poll cited by BlockBeats on Sept. 14, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week and deliver at least one more hike by the end of March next year. That marks a reversal from the earlier fragile consensus that rates would remain unchanged.
September hike seen as the base case
After last Friday’s inflation report, the Reuters survey showed that 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, taking the rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Reuters said this would be the first rate increase since July 2023.
Forecasts for the next few months have shifted
Nearly 53% of forecasters now expect at least one additional rate hike by the end of March next year. A week earlier, 56% had still expected rates to remain unchanged. The previously dominant view that the Fed would cut rates by 2027 is no longer in place.
Economist says inflation data changed the picture
Bank of America senior economist Stephen Juneau said, 「Waller has effectively backed himself into a position where the Fed will only abandon rate hikes if the data turns very weak.」
Juneau also said he has expected three rate hikes this year since June. 「We originally were not there yet... then we got this inflation report, and the picture became much clearer.」
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
