Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has put the odds of the Clarity Act passing by April at 80%, placing fresh attention on a bill that could reshape how U.S. institutions handle XRP. The White House has also set a March 1 target to resolve the stablecoin yield dispute tied to the legislation. If the bill moves through, XRP would be treated as a digital commodity, giving U.S. banks a clearer path to use On-Demand Liquidity and opening room for ETF-linked products.
Election timing is part of the pressure
Jake Claver of Digital Ascension Group said the window could narrow if the bill does not advance before the midterm election cycle takes over. Once campaign politics dominate the agenda, crypto legislation can become much harder to move. In that reading, the next phase is not only about the bill itself, but also about whether the White House can settle the stablecoin provision that has slowed it down.
Banks have shifted their stance within a year
Claver said that a year ago he would have argued banks were not ready. After attending the Ondo Summit and other industry events, he now sees a different setup. The report says BNY Mellon is already custodying RLUSD, while Fidelity, Citi, and Franklin Templeton are moving closer to the XRP and RLUSD orbit. JP Morgan, meanwhile, runs Onyx for internal settlement, but broader interoperability with external chains still depends on clearer rules.
Claver also relayed a view attributed to Ripple CTO David Schwartz: the main issue is not only legal clarity. Banks also want an asset that is stable enough to use at scale. In that framing, a high and steady XRP price matters more than one marked by sharp swings.
Early flow data points to growing attention
The article points to several market signals already on the tape. XRP reportedly drew $5 million in inflows within the first five minutes of a recent morning session, while payment volume between accounts rose by roughly 400%. Those figures are presented as early evidence that expectations around regulation and institutional product growth are beginning to show up in trading and network activity.
Ripple says its banking stack is already in place
The report argues that Ripple has spent the waiting period building an end-to-end institutional stack. Hidden Road is now part of Ripple Prime, G Treasury has become Ripple Treasury, and Ripple 1 combines stablecoin issuance, custody, and digital identity in a single package. In Claver’s paraphrase of Garlinghouse, the exact shape of the final rule matters less than having a workable framework in place, because Ripple believes it is already ahead of competitors in readiness.
The piece also says that once the Clarity Act passes, expired NDAs could be followed by a series of partnership announcements. Deutsche Bank has already spoken publicly, and Ripple President Monica Long expects full-scale institutional adoption of the XRP Ledger in 2026.
Capital rotation may not follow the old altcoin pattern
Bitcoin dominance has fallen from 61% in November to about 58%, according to the report, a shift that suggests capital is starting to move toward large-cap altcoins. Claver argues this cycle will not look like earlier ones, though. Much of Bitcoin is now held through ETFs and structured products rather than on exchanges, so liquidity leaving BTC may flow into structured vehicles instead of the traditional altcoin spot market. If regulatory clarity arrives and institutional products scale, XRP could be near the front of that line.