Social media is buzzing with predictions that XRP could hit $50 or even $100, with many retail investors pouring their savings into the token. Ripple CTO David Schwartz was asked point-blank to tell supporters this was impossible. He refused. Instead, he offered a sober take: market prices reflect real beliefs, not online hype.
Schwartz: I Sold XRP at $0.10, Thinking $0.25 Was a Stretch
Schwartz explained that crypto markets have a long history of surprising everyone. He personally once thought XRP reaching $0.25 was unlikely — so unlikely that he sold some of his own XRP at $0.10, calling that price "insane" at the time. He also recalled how Bitcoin hitting $100 once seemed impossible to most. "In crypto, the word 'impossible' should be used carefully," he said. Predictions with certainty have repeatedly failed in this market.
Reality Check: If a 10% Chance of $100 Existed, Prices Would Be Much Higher
But Schwartz added an important reality check. If a large number of rational investors truly believed there was even a 10% chance of XRP hitting $100 within a few years, they would not be selling at today's price — which is still well below $10. Instead, they would be buying aggressively, pushing the price up immediately. The fact that XRP remains below $10 suggests most investors aren't betting on that scenario with real money. "Market prices reflect what people are actually willing to bet on, not what they say online," Schwartz concluded.
Crypto Prices Are Mostly Rational
Schwartz also shared a broader view: most cryptocurrency prices are generally rational, meaning they blend future expectations and probabilities. Big bull runs, he said, are typically triggered by unexpected external events, not by predictions everyone already agrees on. If everyone is already talking about $100 XRP, that outcome is likely already priced in to some degree.
He didn't rule out XRP eventually reaching $100 — crypto markets are known for surprises. But his key message is clear: manage risk, don't rely on hype, and don't put your entire savings into a low-probability bet. "I don't feel comfortable saying something like that," Schwartz said, but added that "blind certainty is dangerous."