Robinhood（HOOD）has shown strong share-price performance recently. The stock briefly moved back above the 100-dollar level last night, although it failed to hold that level by the close. The original article’s author still takes a relatively optimistic view of HOOD’s later performance. The article frames the recent rise through several angles, including fundamentals, news-driven catalysts and more direct market signals. On the fundamental side, Robinhood’s May operating data, released last week, is treated as one of the key reference points.
Prediction markets, IPOs and the “Trump Account”
On the news side, the article highlights prediction markets as the fastest-growing segment. Robinhood has begun using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to intercept activity from Kalshi, and the related revenue is expected no longer to be shared with Kalshi. IPO-related business is another part of the argument. SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing unit, was approved last week to act as an IPO underwriter, giving Robinhood the conditions to play a more central role in future IPO activities, with Anthropic and OpenAI cited as examples in the source article.
The article also emphasizes the “Trump Account.” Robinhood has been selected by the U.S. Treasury Department to serve as the brokerage and initial trustee for the program. The “Trump Account” was authorized by U.S. President Trump on June 9, 2025, under the “Big and Beautiful” bill. It is a tax-deferred investment account plan designed to create government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens born between January 1, 2025, and January 1, 2029. According to the article, this means tens of millions of newborns in the United States over the next few years will default to Robinhood as their brokerage platform.
From Q2 earnings expectations to a portfolio switch
The author says the initial reason for building a HOOD position was a positive view of its Q2 earnings performance. One reason was the expectation that stock-trading-related revenue would surge during what the article describes as an epic U.S. equity market rally. Another was the increase in prediction-market trading volume tied to the World Cup, together with Rothera’s role in keeping more of that revenue within Robinhood. The later decision to shift a larger portion of the portfolio, mainly some remaining crypto assets, into HOOD came from a different line of reasoning, which the article identifies as its central point.
In early May, a friend asked the author what had been bought recently, and HOOD was mentioned. At that time, HOOD had just fallen from above 90 dollars after a Q1 earnings report that missed expectations. The article states that the main reason for the miss was an unexpected 100-million-dollar expense related to the “Trump Account.” The short-term price action looked poor. After hearing the explanation, the friend said that existing positions were trapped and there was little cash left. When asked what was being held, the answer was, as expected, mostly altcoins. The author’s response was direct: “Instead of staying attached to altcoins, it is better to switch directly into HOOD.”
HOOD is no longer only a crypto “shadow stock”
The background for that judgment is that crypto-related revenue had long been an important component of Robinhood’s total revenue, and HOOD’s stock-price movement had also shown a strong relationship with cryptocurrencies. Recently, however, the article says there have been signs that Robinhood is breaking through its dependence on crypto business and moving away from that correlation in a positive direction. Looking at Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters, the share of that revenue has generally been declining, and the Q1 share fell to the lowest level since 2025.
The article then compares HOOD with BTC price fluctuations. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD mostly moved in a similar pattern to BTC, but a clear divergence has appeared recently. The author uses these two observations to argue that the valuation logic around HOOD has started to change. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a crypto-market “shadow stock”: when the crypto market surged, retail users rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee revenue rose sharply and the stock price took off; when the crypto market weakened, retail users left and Robinhood’s revenue quickly fell.
Now, the article argues, Robinhood is no longer as highly dependent on crypto business as it once was. Even if the crypto market continues in its current weak state, stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO activity and the newly added underwriting business are still described as sources that can support performance growth. This does not mean crypto will stop influencing HOOD. On the contrary, if the crypto market returns to a bull market, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue is expected in the article to expand at the same time, allowing HOOD to continue benefiting from industry growth. The author’s plainer formulation is that crypto still affects HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto. For those who still have expectations for altcoins while growing more concerned about liquidity drying up, narratives failing and value-capture problems, the article presents HOOD as an option with a higher margin of safety at the current stage.