Robinhood (HOOD) has shown strong price action recently. During the previous night’s session, the stock briefly returned above the $100 level, though it failed to hold that mark into the close. The original author remains relatively optimistic about HOOD’s later performance. The article notes that the latest rally can be explained from several angles, including Robinhood’s fundamental data and a series of business-related developments. Robinhood released its May operating data last week, while several news-driven factors appear to have provided additional support for investor sentiment.
Prediction markets, IPO traffic and Trump Accounts add new business narratives
One of the fastest-growing areas highlighted in the article is prediction markets. Robinhood has begun using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to capture traffic that previously went through Kalshi. As a result, related revenue is expected no longer to require sharing with Kalshi. The source article points readers to Odaily’s earlier piece titled “The first stock of the prediction market concept has appeared!” for more details. In the IPO arena, SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing business unit, was approved last week to act as an IPO underwriter. The article says this gives Robinhood a path to take a more central role in future IPO activities, with Anthropic and OpenAI cited as examples.
Another major development involves the U.S. Treasury Department. Robinhood has been selected as the broker and initial custodian for “Trump Accounts.” These accounts were authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025, under the “Big Beautiful” bill, and are structured as tax-deferred investment accounts. The plan is designed to create government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and were born between January 1, 2025, and January 1, 2029. According to the source, this means tens of millions of U.S. newborns over the next several years will default to Robinhood as their brokerage platform. The original article also references Odaily’s earlier report titled “Robinhood has gained a new group of stock investors, the oldest is 1 year old and the youngest is -3 years old.”
From a Q2 earnings thesis to a broader HOOD rotation
The author initially built a position in HOOD mainly because of expectations for the company’s Q2 earnings performance. The first reason was the belief that, amid a historic rally in U.S. equities, stock-trading-related revenue for the quarter would see a major increase. The second reason was the expected rise in prediction market trading volume associated with the World Cup, together with Rothera’s ability to capture revenue directly. Later, however, the author moved a larger portion of holdings into HOOD, mainly by converting some remaining crypto assets. The article says this decision was based on a separate and more important line of reasoning.
In early May, a friend asked the author what had been bought recently, and the author mentioned HOOD. At that time, HOOD had just fallen from above $90 after a Q1 earnings report that missed expectations. The miss was mainly attributed to an unexpected $100 million expense related to “Trump Accounts,” and the short-term chart looked weak. After the author briefly explained the reasoning behind the position, the friend replied that most positions were already trapped and there was not much capital left. When the author asked what the friend was holding, the answer was largely altcoins. The author then offered a direct view: “Rather than remaining attached to altcoins, it is better to rotate directly into HOOD.”
Robinhood is reducing dependence on crypto-related revenue
The background for that judgment is that, for a long period, cryptocurrency-related revenue had been an important component of Robinhood’s total revenue. HOOD’s share price also had a strong correlation with crypto assets. Recently, however, the article says there are signs that Robinhood is breaking through its dependence on the crypto business and moving away from that correlation in a positive direction. Looking at the past five quarters, Robinhood’s cryptocurrency-related revenue share has generally been declining, and the Q1 share fell to its lowest level since 2025.
The article also compares HOOD with BTC price movements. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD had often moved similarly to BTC, but a clear divergence has appeared recently. The author emphasizes these two points to argue that the valuation logic around HOOD has started to change. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market. When crypto prices surged, retail traders rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee revenue climbed, and the stock price rose. When the crypto market weakened, retail traders left, and Robinhood’s revenue quickly declined.
Crypto still affects HOOD, but HOOD is no longer only a crypto proxy
The article’s central point is that Robinhood is no longer as heavily dependent on cryptocurrency as it once was. Even if the crypto market continues to stay in its current weak condition, stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO access and the newly added underwriting business are described as business lines that can still support performance growth. This does not mean the crypto market will stop affecting HOOD. On the contrary, if crypto returns to a bull market in the future, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue would also benefit, and HOOD would still be able to share in the industry’s growth.
Put more plainly, the source argues that the crypto market still influences HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto alone. If a crypto bull market returns, HOOD can still rise with it; if crypto remains sluggish, Robinhood has other businesses that can support the stock’s narrative. For investors who still have expectations for altcoins but are increasingly worried about liquidity drying up, narratives failing and value capture becoming weaker, the article presents HOOD as an option with a higher margin of safety than continuing to rely on a token waiting for its next narrative cycle.