According to Artemis, Robinhood’s prediction market business is accelerating at an unprecedented pace. In the second quarter of 2026, prediction market revenue reached approximately $123 million, on track to surpass cryptocurrency revenue for the first time. The latter is expected to fall below $134 million in Q2 due to weak institutional trading activity.
Rothera Platform: $900M+ in First Week
Robinhood’s prediction market platform, Rothera, built in collaboration with Susquehanna, generated over $900 million in trading volume during its debut week. The platform focuses on event contracts – derivatives based on outcomes of elections, sports events, economic indicators, etc. – and has quickly attracted both retail and institutional participants. Rothera’s rapid start has directly fueled the surge in prediction market revenue.
Cryptocurrency Trading Continues to Slide
In stark contrast, Robinhood’s crypto business remains under pressure. Q2 crypto revenue is expected to come in below $134 million, a significant drop from prior quarters. In June, Robinhood’s combined crypto notional trading volume was approximately $14 billion, with $6 billion from the Robinhood App and $8 billion from Bitstamp. Meanwhile, equity notional volume hit $343 billion, options contracts reached 274 million, and event contracts traded a staggering 5.2 billion contracts – far outnumbering crypto activity on a contract basis.
Shifting Revenue Mix
These figures indicate a fundamental shift in Robinhood’s revenue composition. Prediction markets are not only growing faster but may also carry higher per-trade revenue margins. If prediction market revenue officially overtakes crypto revenue in Q2, it would mark a strategic pivot for the company. The inclusion of Bitstamp, an institutional-grade exchange, adds $8 billion in crypto volume, but retail crypto engagement on the main app has clearly waned.
Looking ahead, the approaching 2026 U.S. midterm elections could further boost event contract trading. With Susquehanna acting as a top market maker on Rothera, liquidity depth is expected to improve, potentially attracting more institutional flows. Robinhood’s prediction market revenue may remain ahead of its crypto segment for the foreseeable future.