Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has broken its months-long tight correlation with Bitcoin, according to a chart shared by trader Heisenberg on X. HOOD and BTC moved closely from October 2025 until recent weeks, when the stock started to diverge. HOOD traded near $103.25 while Bitcoin languished around $62,710. The decoupling suggests investors are pricing Robinhood beyond crypto trading volumes, factoring in its product expansion, prediction markets, AI trading tools, and international growth.
$2 Billion Convertible Note Raise
Robinhood priced a $2 billion private offering of 0% convertible senior notes due 2029. The company allocated roughly $290 million for share buybacks, $112 million for capped call transactions, and the rest for general corporate purposes including acquisitions and capital spending. The initial conversion price of about $174.42 per share represents a 65% premium over the June 22 closing price, while the capped call structure sets an initial cap near $237.85. The move gives Robinhood more financial flexibility after its stock rallied past $100, signaling strong investor appetite for its diversified business model.
Prediction Markets Emerge as Growth Driver
Prediction markets have become a key revenue stream for Robinhood. Bernstein projects prediction market revenue to surge from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, fueled by World Cup activity that pushed daily trading volumes to $4.8 billion. Partner Rothera has processed about 200 million contracts since launch. Cantor Fitzgerald recently raised its price target on Robinhood to $130, citing new products, prediction markets, and regulatory catalysts. As prediction markets, options, equities, and AI products account for a larger share of Robinhood's business, the stock may trade less like a direct Bitcoin proxy.
Crypto Still Matters, but Less as a Sole Driver
Robinhood hasn't abandoned crypto. It completed the $180 million acquisition of WonderFi in June, adding Bitbuy and Coinsquare and gaining a regulated foothold in Canada's crypto market. The deal brought roughly 300,000 funded customer accounts. Robinhood also listed Worldcoin (WLD) recently, though the token dropped sharply afterward. Crypto revenue still influences sentiment: the company cut about 290 jobs earlier this month after weak crypto activity weighed on first-quarter results. Yet the decoupling shows markets are valuing Robinhood as a broader fintech platform. Bitcoin remains part of the story, but HOOD holding above $100 while BTC stays under pressure has become the key signal—investors are looking past Bitcoin's swings to Robinhood's wider growth narrative.