Bitcoin has been falling, but the secondary market for high-end watches has moved the other way. Over the past six months, BTC is down about 25% and the CoinDesk 20 has dropped more than 30%. Over the same stretch, secondary watch prices have climbed roughly 4%, based on WatchCharts data.
The WatchCharts index follows secondary market pricing for thousands of luxury watch references across major brands. Its gain over the last six months points to a modest rise in top-tier watch prices. In a recent report co-authored with WatchCharts, Morgan Stanley said the move reflects stabilization rather than the start of another broad boom.
Late-2025 relief followed two years of declines
According to the report, downside pressure in the watch market eased in late 2025 after two years of falling prices. Excess inventory was gradually cleared, forced selling began to fade, and sellers showed less willingness to keep cutting prices. Luxury watchmakers also lifted global retail prices by about 7% since early 2025, which helped support resale values even as transaction volumes stayed soft.
The pattern was very different from what happened a year earlier. In 2024, luxury watches and crypto started moving in opposite directions for the first time since the pandemic. Bitcoin rose on expectations for, and approval of, spot ETFs, while watch prices kept sliding under tighter financial conditions and weaker retail speculation.
The recovery is concentrated in a few brands
Morgan Stanley said the rebound has not spread evenly across the luxury watch market. It has been concentrated in brands with clear pricing power, most notably Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet. Most other brands, the report said, are still trading at deep discounts.
The bank also pointed to controlled secondary channels as a stabilizing factor, especially Rolex’s certified pre-owned program. In its view, these channels have reduced volatility and helped support pricing at the top end of the market.
Gold and silver rally as crypto lags
This split has developed while gold and silver have also surged. Since early 2025, gold is up nearly 70% and silver has risen about 150%. The report linked the move in metals to tight physical supply, industrial demand, and policy risk, all of which have added volatility to those markets. Crypto, by comparison, has been noticeably sidelined.
The divergence suggests investors are no longer treating crypto, luxury watches, and metals as interchangeable scarcity trades. Prices now show a sharper distinction between fast-moving financial assets and slower physical stores of scarcity under mounting macro pressure.