BRICS could represent more than half of global economic output within the next 10 to 15 years, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a projection that highlights the bloc’s growing role in the world economy and its potential to challenge the longstanding dominance of Western-led institutions.
In comments reported by Russian media outlet Rossiya-24, Novak said BRICS already accounts for roughly 35% of global GDP and continues to expand its share every year. He argued that the grouping’s trajectory points to a future in which BRICS economies collectively make up more than 50% of the world economy over the coming decade to decade and a half.
Expansion has changed the scale of BRICS
The projection comes after a major enlargement of the bloc in 2024. Originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, BRICS has added Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The expansion significantly broadens the group’s geographic reach and deepens its economic relevance across energy, trade, and emerging-market representation.
The inclusion of Saudi Arabia and the UAE strengthens BRICS’ standing in global energy markets, given their importance as oil producers. Iran adds further strategic weight in energy and regional trade connectivity, while Egypt and Ethiopia enhance the bloc’s footprint in Africa. Together, these additions reinforce the idea that BRICS is evolving from a loose coalition of large emerging economies into a more influential platform for the Global South.
This shift also carries geopolitical implications. As BRICS grows, it is increasingly framed as a counterweight to Western-dominated economic structures and forums. The bloc’s enlargement reflects a broader desire among many developing and middle-income countries to secure a larger voice in global governance and economic decision-making.
PPP data shows BRICS already ahead of the G7
Public data cited in the report suggests that BRICS has already moved ahead of the G7 on one important measure. Based on purchasing power parity (PPP), BRICS economies account for an estimated 37.3% of global GDP in 2024, compared with 30% for the G7. That metric adjusts for differences in living costs and domestic purchasing power, offering a broader view of real economic scale.
Within that BRICS total, China represents about 19.05% of global GDP on a PPP basis, while India contributes around 8.23%, according to figures referenced from the International Monetary Fund. By comparison, the United States and the European Union each account for roughly 14.5%.
However, the balance looks different under the traditional nominal GDP measure. On that basis, the G7 still leads decisively with around 44% of global output, while BRICS holds about 28%. That distinction matters: BRICS may have surpassed the G7 in PPP terms, but the Western economies still dominate in dollar-denominated output, financial depth, and many of the institutions that shape international capital flows.
Why the bloc’s trajectory matters
Even so, the report argues that BRICS is well positioned for continued growth. The bloc brings together vast populations, resource-rich territories, large domestic markets, and expanding industrial bases. These factors give it structural advantages in generating future economic output, especially as emerging economies continue to account for a larger share of global consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure development.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also publicly advanced this view. Speaking at the BRICS Business Forum in October, Putin said the bloc’s share of global GDP has already surpassed that of the G7 and continues to rise. He described BRICS members as major engines of global economic growth and argued that the main increase in worldwide GDP in the foreseeable future will come from BRICS countries.
That argument aligns with a broader trend in the global economy: the center of gravity is gradually shifting toward large emerging markets, especially in Asia and parts of the Middle East and Africa. China and India remain the most significant drivers of that shift because of their scale, but the addition of major energy producers and strategically located economies gives BRICS a wider foundation than before.
A challenge to Western dominance, but not a simple replacement
Still, surpassing half of global GDP would be a profound milestone, and one that remains a projection rather than an established outcome. Reaching that level will depend on whether BRICS members can sustain growth, deepen economic coordination, and navigate political differences inside an increasingly diverse bloc.
The grouping includes countries with different political systems, trade priorities, regional rivalries, and external alignments. While its economic weight is growing, translating that weight into coherent policy or institutional power is a separate challenge. Questions remain about how effectively BRICS can coordinate on trade settlement, development finance, investment frameworks, and governance reform.
At the same time, the West retains major structural advantages, including the global role of the U.S. dollar, deep capital markets, advanced technology ecosystems, and strong influence over multilateral institutions. For that reason, BRICS’ rise does not automatically mean a sudden displacement of the G7 or the broader Western economic order. Instead, it points to a more competitive and multipolar global landscape.
What Novak’s statement captures most clearly is the speed and scale of the ongoing transition. BRICS is no longer just a symbolic coalition of emerging powers. With its expanded membership and growing economic share, it is becoming a central force in debates over trade, energy, development, and global governance.
If current trends continue, the bloc’s influence over the world economy will keep increasing. Whether BRICS ultimately exceeds 50% of global GDP within 10 to 15 years remains to be seen, but the direction of travel is clear: the group is gaining weight, and the global economic order is becoming less concentrated in the hands of traditional Western powers.