BRICS economies could account for more than half of global economic output within the next 10 to 15 years, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, underscoring the bloc’s growing weight in the world economy and its potential to challenge the long-standing dominance of Western-led institutions.
In remarks cited by Russian media, Novak said BRICS currently represents around 35% of global GDP and continues to grow year after year. He said Russia expects the bloc’s share of the world economy to rise to more than 50% over the coming decade to decade and a half. The statement reflects an increasingly confident tone from Moscow and other BRICS supporters who view the group as a central driver of future global growth.
Expansion has changed the scale of BRICS
Originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, BRICS expanded significantly in 2024 with the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The broader membership gives the bloc a larger geographic footprint across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, while also increasing its relevance in commodities, trade routes, and diplomacy.
The inclusion of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is particularly important because both are major oil producers, strengthening BRICS’ influence in global energy markets. Iran adds strategic energy and trade relevance, while Egypt and Ethiopia deepen African representation within the bloc. The expansion also signals that BRICS is evolving from a loose grouping of major emerging economies into a wider platform for countries seeking stronger representation outside Western-dominated economic frameworks.
This matters not only because of headline GDP comparisons, but because a bigger BRICS carries broader political and institutional implications. A larger membership base can amplify the voice of the Global South in debates over global governance, trade, development finance, and the architecture of international economic cooperation.
BRICS already leads the G7 on a PPP basis
Public data for 2024 shows that BRICS economies account for an estimated 37.3% of global GDP when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), compared with 30% for the G7. PPP is often used to compare actual economic output after adjusting for local price levels and cost of living, making it a useful lens for assessing real productive capacity across countries.
Within that total, China represents about 19.05% of global GDP on a PPP basis, while India accounts for roughly 8.23%, according to figures cited from the International Monetary Fund. By comparison, the United States and the European Union each represent about 14.5%. These figures help explain why BRICS advocates argue that the center of global economic gravity is increasingly shifting toward large emerging economies.
However, the comparison looks different under nominal GDP. On that basis, the G7 still leads with around 44% of global output, while BRICS accounts for about 28%. That gap remains important because nominal GDP is still the benchmark more commonly used in global finance, cross-border capital markets, and sovereign economic comparisons. In other words, BRICS has gained clear ground in real-economy scale under PPP metrics, but Western advanced economies continue to hold an advantage in nominal output and financial system depth.
Russia frames BRICS as a future growth engine
Novak’s comments align with earlier statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said at the BRICS Business Forum in October that the bloc’s share of global GDP had already surpassed that of the G7 and was continuing to rise. Putin described BRICS members as major contributors to international growth and development, arguing that the main increase in global GDP in the foreseeable future would come from BRICS economies.
That argument is rooted in several structural factors: large populations, extensive natural resources, industrial expansion, and rising domestic consumption in key member states. China and India remain the largest engines of growth inside the grouping, but the addition of resource-rich Middle Eastern members broadens BRICS’ economic profile. At the same time, African participation gives the bloc a stronger demographic and developmental dimension that could become increasingly important over the long term.
Supporters of BRICS increasingly present the grouping as more than a symbolic alliance. In their view, it is becoming a meaningful counterweight to institutions and policy structures historically shaped by the United States and its allies. The expansion of BRICS therefore carries both economic and geopolitical significance.
A challenge to Western dominance, but not a simple replacement
The idea that BRICS could eventually account for more than half of the world economy points to a profound rebalancing of global power. If such a shift materializes, it would reinforce trends already visible in trade, energy, infrastructure, and diplomacy. Emerging markets would command greater leverage in setting priorities on development, commodity pricing, financial cooperation, and cross-border settlement.
Still, the data in the current public discussion also shows that the contest is not straightforward. While BRICS has an advantage on a PPP basis, the G7 remains ahead in nominal GDP and continues to dominate many of the world’s most influential financial institutions, reserve currencies, and capital markets. As a result, the rise of BRICS should be seen less as an immediate replacement of Western economic leadership and more as an acceleration of a multipolar global order.
That distinction is critical. BRICS’ growing share of world output does not automatically translate into institutional cohesion or policy unity. The bloc includes countries with different political systems, strategic priorities, and economic models. Yet even with those internal differences, its aggregate scale is becoming difficult to ignore, especially after the latest round of expansion.
Why markets and policymakers are watching
For investors, policymakers, and the crypto sector, the significance of BRICS’ rise lies in the possibility of long-term changes to the global economic map. A bloc with increasing weight in energy production, manufacturing, population, and trade could play a larger role in shaping payment rails, reserve diversification, and discussions around alternatives to legacy Western financial channels.
The latest projections from Russian officials should therefore be read as part economic forecast and part geopolitical message. They highlight the conviction among BRICS members that future growth will be driven increasingly by emerging markets rather than by the traditional advanced economies alone.
Whether BRICS ultimately reaches the threshold of more than half of global GDP within 10 to 15 years remains to be seen. But based on the current trajectory—especially the bloc’s 37.3% PPP share versus the G7’s 30%—the direction of travel is clear: BRICS is becoming a larger force in the world economy, and its expansion is reshaping the debate over who will define the next era of global growth.