Fresh data from Santiment shows that active XRP Ledger wallets are averaging losses of 41% over the past year, driving XRP’s market value to realized value ratio, or MVRV, down to its lowest level since the November 2022 FTX collapse. The reading suggests a large share of holders are underwater and that XRP has moved into a zone often associated with deep undervaluation on-chain.
That is why the metric is drawing attention. Santiment said the last time XRP showed a gap this severe between market value and realized value was during the post-FTX washout. After that capitulation phase, XRP posted a 63% rally in 4.5 months. If the same historical pattern repeats, traders will be watching whether the token can recover the $2 level, a price it last held in January.
Q1 drop topped 25% while $1.30 has held as support
Recent price action has remained weak. XRP started 2026 on a strong note, but the move faded and the asset ended the first quarter down more than 25% overall. After falling to a year-to-date low of $1.22 in early February, XRP has repeatedly defended the $1.30 area, making it a key level for bulls in the current structure.
Still, exchange-related data points to softer near-term demand. According to the report, exchange net position change dropped from 117 million XRP in late March to 57 million XRP by April 5. That decline indicates buyer demand on centralized exchanges has weakened, leaving the short-term trend under pressure even as valuation metrics look stretched on the downside.
Why deeply negative MVRV matters
MVRV is commonly used to compare market price with aggregate holder cost basis. When it moves sharply into negative territory, it often means a broad share of investors are sitting on losses. Santiment said that in crypto’s zero-sum trading environment, significantly negative average returns usually imply lower-than-average risk for buying or adding exposure.
The firm also argued that once markets enter what it described as a “blood in the streets” phase, weak hands have often already exited. Prices can stay under pressure, but the statistical risk-reward balance may begin to favor a relief move. In XRP’s case, the combination of -41% average returns and a multi-year MVRV low is the core signal now being tracked by contrarian traders.
That leaves XRP between two opposing forces. Exchange demand has cooled and the immediate trend still looks bearish, yet on-chain valuation has fallen into an extreme zone that has previously appeared near major reversals. Whether XRP can reclaim $2 will depend on whether this MVRV setup produces another historical-style rebound.