Saudi Aramco set the April official selling price for its Arab Light crude to Asia at a premium of $2.50 per barrel against the Oman/Dubai average, the largest premium since August 2022. In March the price was flat to the benchmark, and in February the premium was just $0.30. For Northwest Europe the premium was set at $2.85 against Brent futures, and for the U.S. at a premium of $4.60 against Argus Sour Crude.
Asia Central Banks Pivot: India, Philippines Now Seen Hiking
As traders increase bets on an oil price shock from the Iran conflict, monetary policy expectations across developing Asian economies have reversed sharply. Overnight index swaps show rate hike pricing for India and the Philippines instead of earlier easing expectations. Thailand and Indonesia are still seen cutting, but the probability is shrinking. Malaysia's investors are also preparing for higher rates.
Selena Ling, head of research at OCBC, noted that Asian central banks will stay highly sensitive to oil trends given the potential for a prolonged Iran conflict, and may watch closely whether near-term monetary easing space has closed. Indonesia and the Philippines saw rising February CPI and are heavily reliant on fuel imports, with weaker local currencies adding cost. Even Thailand, where inflation has been negative for nearly a year, warned that food and fuel prices from Middle East tensions could push inflation up from this month.
Bessent: 30-day Waiver Lets India Buy Russian Oil, Eases Iran 'Hostage' Pressure
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X that President Trump's energy agenda has achieved record-high oil and gas production. The Treasury issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. Bessent stressed this short-term measure is designed to avoid significant revenue for Moscow, only covering transactions for oil already stranded at sea. He expects India to boost purchases of U.S. oil, calling the waiver a step to ease pressure created by Iran's attempt to hold global energy as a hostage.
Trump Administration Says 'All Options on Table' to Lower Oil
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told Bloomberg that besides the Indian Russian oil waiver, the U.S. is evaluating more measures to drive down prices. Options include: releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), possibly coordinated with other nations but not yet activated; waiving fuel blending requirements to increase supply; and a Treasury outright trading of crude futures — unprecedented for the world's largest producer and consumer, though the mechanism remains unclear. Also announced: DFC war insurance and Navy escort, details still being finalized.
Burgum said America has a chance to establish normal order with federal power, adding only the U.S. has both the financial and naval strength to ensure adequate supply for allies. Since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, oil prices have risen about 18%, with gasoline at nearly one-year highs. Burgum spoke after a two-day meeting in Venezuela discussing oil and mining investments, following the U.S.-assisted arrest of former President Maduro in January. Political pressure from November midterm elections also drives the price campaign.