The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has once again delayed its decision on the proposed PENGU exchange-traded fund, muting market sentiment. As of press time, PENGU traded at $0.012, up 0.2% in 24 hours and roughly 23% higher over the past week, though the rebound has not fully erased recent weakness. The token is still down 4.4% on a 30-day basis, swinging between $0.009665 and $0.01363 over the past seven days. Daily volume fell 0.7% to about $209 million.
ETF review extended to March 11; NFT-token hybrid structure adds complexity
Late on Jan. 7, the SEC pushed back its ruling on Canary Capital’s PENGU ETF by 60 days, moving the deadline to March 11. The application, first filed in September 2025, has now seen multiple extensions. A notable feature of the proposal is its dual-asset structure: the ETF would hold both physical Pudgy Penguins NFTs and PENGU tokens (based on Solana), listing on the Cboe BZX Exchange. This setup introduces additional regulatory scrutiny — authorities must evaluate NFT pricing, custody, and compliance frameworks, which go beyond typical crypto ETF filings. Following the delay announcement, PENGU fell roughly 6%, underscoring the tight link between price action and ETF expectations.
The decline came despite ongoing brand momentum for Pudgy Penguins, including the “Year of the Penguin” campaign and a full visual takeover of the Las Vegas Sphere.
Technical setup: $0.0135-$0.0140 is the key battleground
Technically, PENGU is at an inflection point. A descending trendline from the November highs near $0.038-$0.040 continues to cap upside moves. The recent rebound pushed the token back into the $0.0130-$0.0135 zone — a level where selling pressure repeatedly emerged since November, coinciding with the 20-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 58, indicating improved buying momentum without reaching overbought conditions. Price is trading in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, and overall volatility is still compressed, often a precursor to a larger move.
A daily close above $0.0135-$0.0140 would mark the first significant break from sustained downside pressure. Until then, upside attempts could quickly fade. On the downside, the $0.0120 area has been defended multiple times during recent pullbacks. Failure there opens the door to $0.0103, followed by the cycle low near $0.0071.