Every May, the financial adage "Sell in May and Go Away" circulates again. For Bitcoin, this saying has proven particularly accurate during midterm election years — in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin plunged 61%, 65%, and 66% respectively, with declines typically beginning around May. Now in May 2026, a similar technical setup is raising red flags.
Midterm May Crashes in History
Noted analyst Crypto Rover points out that in 2018, Bitcoin rallied for five consecutive weeks before May and then collapsed. In 2026, April already recorded four green weekly candles, and May started with a 2% gain; a fifth green week would mirror the 2018 pattern. Rover believes this seasonality, combined with current technical weakness, creates a dangerous setup for investors jumping back in too early. Another analyst, DefiTracer, warns that if the "Sell in May" pattern repeats, Bitcoin could drop toward $30,000.
April High Is the Critical Level
Since 2020, a clear pattern has emerged: if Bitcoin fails to break April's high within the first five trading days of May, the month ends at least 5% lower, with an average drawdown of nearly 20%. Last year (2025), Bitcoin broke above April's high on May 1 and then rallied 16.9% to $112,000 by May 22. This year, the key level is April's high near $79,500. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above this level in early May will likely set the tone for the entire month.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $77,141, up 2% in 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.54 trillion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to absorb selling pressure, providing a buffer for the market.
Not All Mays Are Bearish
However, historical data paints a more nuanced picture. Since 2018, Bitcoin closed May in the red only four out of eight years. By average monthly return, May ranks 6th among all months; by median return, it ranks 3rd. Explosive gains include 52% in both May 2017 and May 2019, and nearly 39.4% in May 2014. Thus, the conventional "Sell in May" strategy does not apply neatly to Bitcoin — the month more often sees slower trading than directional collapse.
Sentiment is cautious but not panicked. The smart move is not to blindly sell, but also not to ignore technical signals — especially the April high. The next few trading sessions will determine whether Bitcoin repeats its historical May curse or breaks the seasonal pattern.