SemiAnalysis said AMD signed performance-linked warrant agreements with Meta and OpenAI at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, tying vesting to both deployment progress and stock-price targets. The research firm said the warrants are linked to the procurement and deployment of as much as 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, with multiple stock hurdles and a top threshold of $600. AMD shares, according to the note, have risen from about $200 at the start of 2026 to roughly $500-$600 now. Assuming stock-related warrant vesting scales broadly in a linear way and the full 6GW is deployed, SemiAnalysis estimated that hourly capital cost per GPU would fall for Meta to about $1.60 from $2.15, and for OpenAI to about $1.75 from $2.50. It added that if AMD shares move into the $600-$700 range, the two companies’ GPU-only capital costs could effectively drop to zero. In a higher-end scenario, SemiAnalysis said that if AMD keeps improving its software stack, wins more large customer orders, and pushes its stock above $1,000, the capital cost of an entire cluster, including servers, networking, and CPUs, could in theory approach zero as well.
SemiAnalysis said AMD entered into performance-linked warrant agreements with Meta and OpenAI at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, respectively, giving the two companies warrants tied to business performance.
According to the research firm, vesting depends on the procurement and deployment progress of as much as 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs. It also depends on whether AMD shares clear several stock-price hurdles, with the highest threshold set at $600.
How the cost model changes as AMD shares rise
SemiAnalysis said AMD stock has climbed from about $200 at the start of 2026 to roughly $500 to $600 now. Under the assumption that stock-linked warrant vesting changes in a broadly linear fashion, and that the full 6GW capacity is deployed, Meta’s hourly capital cost per GPU would drop to about $1.60 from around $2.15, while OpenAI’s would fall to about $1.75 from roughly $2.50.
The firm added that if AMD shares rise into the $600 to $700 range, the two companies’ capital cost for GPUs alone could effectively fall to zero.
A theoretical scenario above $1,000
SemiAnalysis also said that if AMD continues improving its software stack, secures more large customer orders, and drives its share price above $1,000, then the capital cost of the full cluster, including server equipment, networking, and CPUs, could in theory move close to zero.
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