BlockBeats reported on Aug. 10 that SemiAnalysis, in its latest report, said SpaceX could feasibly add more than 10GW of compute capacity by the end of 2027 after assessing all viable sites and available gas power generation equipment tied to the company.
The report cited Elon Musk’s earlier comments at SpaceX’s first earnings presentation, where he said the company’s “conservative” target was to build and deliver 6GW to 8GW of incremental compute capacity in 2027, with potential upside above 10GW.
Capex estimate ranges from $300 billion to $500 billion
At roughly $50 billion in capital expenditure per gigawatt, SpaceX’s 2027 capex would come to about $300 billion to $500 billion, according to the report.
SemiAnalysis said the high margins in AI inference are a major force behind expanding demand for compute. In its model, OpenAI and Anthropic could generate more than $100 billion in annual revenue per gigawatt by offering API inference services on GB300 clusters.
The report also provided a cost framework. At a rental price of $3 per GPU-hour, annual cost per gigawatt would be about $12 billion. On that basis, gross margins for inference would exceed 60%, and could top 85% for some flagship models.
Microsoft demand seen as a possible source of large contracts
SemiAnalysis said Microsoft’s compute shortfall could bring major orders to SpaceX. The firm estimated that Microsoft’s $250 billion infrastructure-as-a-service agreement with OpenAI signed in October 2025 corresponds to about 7GW of compute capacity.
It added that Microsoft has so far this year signed more than 10GW in committed contracts through a mix of leasing, self-buildouts, and long-term power purchase agreements.
Against that backdrop, SemiAnalysis said a Microsoft-SpaceX compute contract for around 3GW, with a total value of about $150 billion, is “not impossible.” One reason cited in the report is that SpaceX could offer a 90-day cancellation clause, lowering Microsoft’s financial risk.
Fast buildout is highlighted as a SpaceX advantage
The report also said SpaceX has an edge in rapidly building compute infrastructure. As examples, it pointed to the 300MW Colossus 1 facility being completed in 122 days, and the Southaven power plant expanding from about 495MW to 1.7GW within a matter of months.
SemiAnalysis said that if half of SpaceX’s new 2027 compute capacity is used for commercial inference and the rest is allocated to training for the Grok and Cursor teams, the company’s annual recurring revenue could reach $300 billion by the end of 2027.