According to BlockBeats, a whale previously tracked for going long a basket of semiconductor-related stocks exited all eight positions on the morning of July 17, based on monitoring data from Hyperinsight.
The positions, centered on semiconductor and memory names, were closed with total notional value of about $17.869 million. The whale realized cumulative losses of roughly $9.681 million.
Since those July 17 exits, six of the eight names have recovered from the whale’s closing prices. On a theoretical basis, had the whale not sold at that point, the basket would now be down $1.6317 million less, equal to about 17% of the original realized loss.
Most of the rebound came from U.S. and South Korean chip names
NBIS posted the strongest rebound from the whale’s July 17 exit level, rising 16.0%. MRVL gained 13.0%, and CRCL rose 12.0%.
Among memory-related names, MU advanced 10.3%, SNDK climbed 9.4%, and SKHX added 6.6%.
Two China-linked names did not follow that pattern. CXMT remained 0.8% below the whale’s July 17 selling price, while ZHIPU stayed 16.4% lower. Hyperinsight said this round of recovery was basically a rally in U.S. and South Korean semiconductor stocks. Looking back, the whale’s sell decision came close to a local low.
Breakdown by position
- Marvell (MRVL): average entry price of $317.2, average exit price of $182.8, realized loss of $4.309 million; the loss could have been reduced by $744,000 if held until now.
- SanDisk (SNDK): average entry price of $2,183.6, average exit price of $1,356.32, realized loss of $1.909 million; the loss could have been reduced by $287,000.
- SK Hynix (SKHX): average entry price of $1,620.2, average exit price of $1,175.3, realized loss of $1.865 million; the loss could have been reduced by $338,000.
- Micron Technology (MU): average entry price of $1,111, average exit price of $826.2, realized loss of $510,000; the loss could have been reduced by $148,000.
- Nebius (NBIS): average entry price of $253.80, average exit price of $166.5, realized loss of $463,000; the loss could have been reduced by $144,000.
- Circle (CRCL): average entry price of $76.59, average exit price of $60.2, realized loss of $212,000; the loss could have been reduced by $95,100.
- ZHIPU: average entry price of $287.1, average exit price of $182.2, realized loss of $405,000; if held until now, the floating loss would instead have widened to $531,400.
- CXMT: average entry price of $7.3, average exit price of $6.8, realized loss of about $5,808; if held until now, the floating loss would be about $6,576.
The rebound reduced the damage, but did not restore the trade
Hyperinsight noted that the rebound only changed the depth of the losses. Because the whale chased these names at elevated levels, all eight still trade far below the original entry costs. Even holding the basket until now would not have brought it back to breakeven.
ZHIPU and CXMT remain below their July 17 exit prices by 16.4% and 0.8%, respectively. For this whale, the July 17 selloff determined whether the basket would lose $9.68 million or about $8.02 million, not whether the trade could turn profitable.
An earlier update had said the whale’s semiconductor basket once carried a roughly $20 million position and had been deeply underwater across the board, with losses exceeding $5.5 million.