Serenity, the X analyst who gained attention after a bullish Dell call, is now highlighting Sivers Semiconductors, a Swedish-listed chip company trading as SIVE. The company makes indium phosphide DFB laser chips, a component used as a light source in optical data transfer between GPUs inside AI data centers. According to the source material, SIVE’s market value climbed from $150 million to roughly $2 billion, putting it on the radar of retail investors following AI infrastructure names.
In his latest post, Serenity framed the company’s rise through what he called a “progressive doubt” pattern. At each stage of SIVE’s market-cap expansion, skeptics questioned a different part of the story, and he argued that later disclosures challenged those bearish views. Early on, investors doubted whether the customer list was real. The source says Jabil later announced it was using SIVE’s DFB lasers in 1.6T optical transceiver modules, while Ayar Labs’ SuperNova light source explicitly identified SIVE laser arrays.
SIVE’s role sits high in the AI optical supply chain
SIVE is not selling consumer-facing hardware. Its position is further upstream. As AI data centers move data transmission from copper toward fiber, laser light sources become essential, and SIVE supplies the chip behind that function. The source describes the company as being in the “upstream of the upstream” segment of silicon photonics and co-packaged optics, with customers or partners including Jabil, Ayar Labs, O-Net, Enablence, and POET.
Execution has been another point of debate. Rather than build its own fabrication capacity, SIVE uses Win Semi in Taiwan as its foundry partner, taking an asset-light route to scale production. That arrangement was presented as a response to doubts over whether a smaller Swedish company could meet larger demand. Competition was also a recurring concern, particularly whether SIVE would be overwhelmed by Lumentum. Serenity’s argument, as cited in the source, is that SIVE occupies a part of the market that Lumentum does not serve, while holding a strong supplier position in some projects.
Revenue fell, but the project pipeline expanded
The latest numbers remain central to the debate. SIVE reported SEK 61.9 million in revenue for Q1 2026, down 22% year over year. The source attributes that decline to delays in U.S. defense budgeting following a government shutdown at the end of 2025. At the same time, the company’s project pipeline grew from $453 million to $799 million, an increase of 77%. CEO Vickram Vathulya kept full-year guidance unchanged, and the material points to a restart in defense orders in the second half as a key item to watch.
On the market side, SIVE was quoted at SEK 68.95, about 8% below its May 22 record high of SEK 74.90. Its market capitalization stood at about SEK 20.7 billion, or roughly $2 billion. Serenity also flagged a shift in the shareholder base, saying more of the float has moved from Swedish holders to U.S. retail investors. He warned that if U.S. institutions begin building positions, volatility could increase. The source also makes clear that converting a $799 million pipeline into booked revenue will take time.