Citrini analyst jukan said in a post on X that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae now expects SK Hynix to post operating profit of KRW 60.4 trillion in the second quarter of 2026. That would be up 61% quarter over quarter and 556% from a year earlier, but still 8% below the market consensus of KRW 65 trillion.
Chae linked the lower estimate to SK Hynix’s higher share of HBM sales versus peers, weaker-than-expected price gains in conventional DRAM, and the stabilizing effect of long-term agreements, or LTAs, on average selling prices. The analyst cut the forecast for blended DRAM ASP growth in Q2 2026 to 28.9% from 50.0%, and lowered commodity DRAM ASP growth to 34.2% from 60.6%.
Chae said blended ASP growth could return to around the market-average sequential level of 10% once HBM4 enters mass production in the third quarter of 2026. The analyst added that the revision should not be read as a signal of an industry downturn, describing it instead as a more realistic reflection of the three- to five-year LTA structure. On that basis, Chae still expects stable long-term earnings expansion, with operating profit growth for fiscal 2026 through 2028 projected at 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.
Profit estimate moved lower for Q2 2026
Odaily reported that Citrini analyst jukan wrote on X that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae expects SK Hynix to post operating profit of KRW 60.4 trillion in the second quarter of 2026. The figure implies 61% quarter-over-quarter growth and 556% year-over-year growth, while coming in 8% below the market consensus of KRW 65 trillion.
HBM mix, DRAM pricing, and LTAs were cited
According to the post, the lower estimate reflects three factors: SK Hynix has a higher share of HBM sales than its peers, price gains in conventional DRAM have come in below earlier market expectations, and long-term agreements, or LTAs, have made ASPs more stable.
Chae cut the expected quarter-over-quarter growth rate for blended DRAM ASP in Q2 2026 to 28.9% from 50.0%. The forecast for commodity DRAM ASP growth was also lowered, to 34.2% from 60.6%.
HBM4 mass production seen lifting blended ASP growth back toward market average
Chae said blended ASP growth would return to about the market-average sequential level of 10% once HBM4 officially enters mass production in the third quarter of 2026.
Long-term earnings growth view remains intact
The analyst said the revision does not signal an industry downturn. Instead, it reflects a more realistic view of the three- to five-year LTA structure, which Chae expects will support steadier long-term earnings growth. For fiscal 2026 through 2028, the analyst projects year-over-year operating profit growth of 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.
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