Societe Generale said on Sept. 9 that the 2026 gold bull market is moving beyond a phase led mainly by speculative momentum and into a new stage where physical demand, futures positioning and options activity are rising together. The bank said the gold market is showing signs that different types of capital are building positions at the same time.
Gold ETF inflows reached 201 tonnes in August
According to Societe Generale, net inflows into gold ETFs totaled 201 tonnes in August. That was the third-largest monthly figure on record, behind only February 2009 and March 2020.
Asset managers’ net long futures exposure climbed to the second-highest level on record
At the same time, the notional net long exposure in gold futures held by asset managers rose to the second-highest level in history. The only higher reading came in January this year, when gold prices broke above $5,400 per ounce.
Options market still points to a bullish stance
The options market is also sending a bullish signal. Investors are using put options to hedge short-term risk while continuing to build longer-dated call positions. Societe Generale said this shows the market is still watching near-term volatility, but remains constructive on gold over the medium to long term.
Societe Generale keeps its strategically bullish view
The bank said continued central bank gold buying, de-dollarization, geopolitical risk and concern over sovereign debt are lifting the floor under gold prices and weakening the traditional pressure that high real interest rates exert on gold. As volatility in gold declines, the metal is also becoming more attractive to long-term reserve managers.
On Federal Reserve policy, Societe Generale said expectations for further rate hikes have already been priced in to a large extent, and downside risk for gold is gradually narrowing. The bank maintained its "strategically bullish" stance on gold and said persistent inflation pressure, U.S. tariffs, AI and infrastructure investment, and large fiscal deficits could continue to support prices.