Solana (SOL) rebounded to around $66 early this week after briefly sliding below $61, marking its lowest level since early 2023. The token dropped more than 20% over six consecutive days during last week's market rout before dip buyers stepped in.
The recovery was driven by exhaustion in selling pressure. Panic across crypto markets triggered heavy liquidations, and several large holders reduced positions during the selloff. Over the weekend, volatility cooled and bargain hunters established a short-term trading range roughly between $60 and $68.
However, institutional data adds fresh headwinds. SoSoValue data shows spot Solana ETFs recorded net outflows in the past two trading days, ending a streak of inflows that had held since May. The shift came as investors reassessed risk after stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which strengthened the dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher, pressuring digital assets.
On-chain activity also shows some large holders moving SOL to exchanges, increasing available supply. Meanwhile, CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps reveal a dense cluster of leveraged positions between $75 and $77, with another concentration above $80. A rally into that zone could trigger short squeezes and accelerate upside momentum.
Technicals: $60 support holds, $75-$81 becomes immediate resistance
On the daily chart, SOL bounced directly from the 0 Fibonacci retracement level near $60.3, a level that coincides with the token's lowest price since early 2023. Buyers defended that support aggressively, allowing the price to climb back above $66. The first major overhead barrier sits near $81 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement), followed by $94, $104, and $115, corresponding to deeper retracements from January's peak near $149.
Moving averages remain bearish. SOL is still below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, which cluster between roughly $78 and $102. The daily MACD is below its signal line, though early stabilization signs have emerged.
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that SOL has already delivered the typical 20-30% move upon breaking a long consolidation range. He added that bulls now need to reclaim lost ground after the breakdown from a multi-month trading range, and that Solana is retesting a major weekly support area that will determine whether the decline deepens or a recovery begins.
Downside risks remain despite bounce
The recovery thesis faces several threats. First, losing the $60 support zone would expose Solana to another leg lower and likely trigger cascading liquidations across leveraged futures. Second, macro conditions remain uncertain: further dollar strength, rising bond yields, or a hawkish Fed pivot could pressure crypto again. Third, Bitcoin's direction is critical. SOL's recent drop coincided with heavy ETF outflows and broad market weakness. Unless Bitcoin establishes a durable recovery, reclaiming May's highs near $95 will be difficult despite the bounce.
For now, the bounce from three-year lows gives traders a reason to watch for a larger recovery, but bulls must first break through the $75-$81 resistance zone before the path toward May highs becomes realistic.