Solana traded around $83.52 on Monday, defending a key support zone just above $80 as prediction markets signaled rising bearish bets. Polymarket data shows traders now assign an 86% probability that Solana will close March below $80, a sharp drop from the 50% expectation for a $100 close seen just a week ago. Meanwhile, markets price a 47% chance of a drop below $70 and a 20% probability of a slide under $60.
Support Zone Under Pressure, Technical Indicators Bearish
The daily chart on TradingView shows Solana holding a broad support band between $83 and $67. In late February, price briefly touched $67.57 before rebounding above $80, forming a higher low with a long lower wick indicating strong buying interest at depressed levels. However, technical pressure remains intact above: the 20-day EMA sits at $86.05, and the 50-day EMA stands at $98.97. A descending trendline from September highs near $260 continues to cap rallies near the $90 to $92 horizontal resistance zone.
Derivatives Market Deleveraging Accelerates, Leverage Still Skewed Long
Coinglass data reveals open interest fell 6.49% to $4.83 billion, while trading volume dropped more than 23%, pointing to reduced risk appetite. Total liquidations reached $1.11 million, with long positions accounting for over half. Despite the flush, leverage remains tilted to the upside: the long/short ratio on Binance stands above 2.4 for accounts and above 3.0 for top traders. Options volume has risen sharply, indicating active hedging against downside exposure.
Two-Hour Trendline Becomes Final Defense
On the two-hour chart, Solana trades above an ascending trendline guiding price since the February rebound, now aligning closely with the $80 level. The Parabolic SAR hovers near $85.97, reinforcing short-term resistance. Price struggles near the $92 barrier, while the Chaikin Money Flow remains near zero, reflecting balanced flows during consolidation. A daily close below $80 would break the trendline, validate the bearish Polymarket positioning, and open the path toward $75 to $70 demand zone, potentially revisiting the February low at $67.57.