The Kobeissi Letter said technology stocks now account for a historically high share of earnings growth in the S&P 500, but the mix inside that leadership is starting to shift. In the first quarter of 2026, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft together made up about 34% of the index’s year-over-year EPS growth, while semiconductor companies contributed another 31%. The rest of the index accounted for roughly 36%.
That means large-cap platform companies and chipmakers together drove 65% of first-quarter earnings growth, up from 52% in the same period of 2025. Looking ahead to the second-quarter reporting season, The Kobeissi Letter expects semiconductor firms to add 17 percentage points to their share, taking their contribution to a record 48%. Over the same period, the contribution from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft is projected to fall by 25 percentage points to about 9%.
The note points to a change in market leadership inside the index: earnings growth is expected to be led less by the largest tech platforms and more by the semiconductor sector.
On July 22, The Kobeissi Letter said technology stocks are accounting for a historically high share of earnings growth in the S&P 500.
In the first quarter of 2026, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft together contributed about 34% of the index’s year-over-year earnings-per-share growth. Semiconductor companies added another 31%, while the rest of the index contributed roughly 36%.
Taken together, those two groups accounted for 65% of S&P 500 earnings growth in the first quarter, up from 52% in the same period of 2025. The figures show that profit growth in the index remains heavily concentrated in large technology companies and the semiconductor sector.
Q2 expectations point to a shift
For the second-quarter earnings season, The Kobeissi Letter expects semiconductor companies to increase their contribution to S&P 500 earnings growth by 17 percentage points from the first quarter, reaching a record 48%.
At the same time, the contribution from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft is projected to drop by 25 percentage points to about 9%.
If that pattern holds, the main driver of S&P 500 earnings growth will be shifting from large platform technology companies to semiconductor firms.
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