SpaceX has dropped below its $135 IPO price for the first time since completing its June 2026 public listing, as short sellers stepped up bets against the stock ahead of earnings and a coming lock-up expiration.
According to data from S3 Partners, total short interest in SpaceX has climbed to 181 million shares, equal to 28% of the company’s float. Those bearish positions have built up mark-to-market gains of $3.88 billion. Investors are also watching two upcoming events: Starship’s 13th test flight and the company’s first quarterly earnings report since going public.
Short interest climbed sharply after the listing
S3 Partners said investors betting against SpaceX have expanded their positions aggressively. Short interest now stands at 181 million shares, a level the report described as unusually high for a newly listed company in its first month of trading.
Over the past week alone, short sellers added nearly 37 million shares, worth about $5 billion. The increase points to strong caution in the market over the stock’s near-term direction.
Shares slipped below the IPO price after a steep pullback
SpaceX went public on June 12 and at one point rose to a record high of $225, giving it a market value above Microsoft and Amazon. That valuation quickly came under scrutiny as investors questioned the company’s path to monetizing heavy capital spending tied to artificial intelligence and satellite communications.
After four straight days of declines, the stock fell as low as $132.15 in the latest session, breaking below the $135 offering price. Compared with its June 16 peak, SpaceX has lost $860 billion in market value. The shares are now down nearly 40% from their high, based on UBS’s assessment.
UBS kept a Buy rating and a $210 target
UBS said the recent selloff does not reflect weakening fundamentals. Instead, the bank linked the decline to short-term positioning pressure and expectations for a wave of unlocked shares after earnings.
The bank said Starship’s 13th test flight, scheduled for July 16, could act as a near-term catalyst for the stock. UBS expects the test to examine key technologies including engine relight capability and deployment of Starlink V3 satellites. If successful, the test would help reinforce SpaceX’s standing in the space economy, communications and AI computing, according to the bank.
On that basis, UBS maintained a Buy rating on SpaceX and set a $210 price target, saying the recent weakness may offer an entry point for long-term investors with a higher risk tolerance.
Early August earnings and lock-up expiry are the next focus
SpaceX is expected to release its first quarterly financial report since listing in early August. After the report, the first phase of the lock-up period for employees and early shareholders is set to expire.
The market expects that event to release millions of shares into trading and add another supply test for a stock that is already under pressure. That expected increase in available shares has become a central part of the bearish case heading into the earnings date.