SpaceX closed at $115.07 on Friday, its lowest close since listing in June, even as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target on the stock.
According to BlockTempo, the stock fell below $111 during the session. In after-hours trading, it moved down again to $113.37, a decline of 1.48%.
Jonas said in a note to clients that investor sentiment has turned more negative even though the company’s fundamentals have seen little change. “We believe there is a disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and almost no change in the company’s fundamentals, creating an attractive opportunity for investors to buy SpaceX shares,” he wrote.
Morgan Stanley says $100 would imply no value for the AI unit
Jonas said many investors he has spoken with expect the stock to fall to $100 per share, largely because the first lock-up expiration arrives next month and some insiders will then be able to sell.
His main point was not just the level itself, but what that level would mean for valuation. More than half of Morgan Stanley’s $300 target price is tied to SpaceX’s AI business. If the stock drops to $100, Jonas argued, the market would effectively be valuing the company’s AI arm at zero, or even below zero.
“Most investors we speak with are heavily discounting Grok and Cursor,” Jonas wrote. The reasons he listed were familiar: compared with the company’s space and connectivity operations, AI demands heavier capital spending, carries a highly uncertain profit model, and consumes too much management attention.
Grok and Cursor are now part of the company structure
The report said SpaceX is no longer only a rocket company. It announced the merger with xAI in February and completed it on May 6, bringing Grok into the company. In June, it also finalized the acquisition of AI coding tool Cursor, adding developer Anysphere to the same group. Grok 4.5, released in July, has already used Cursor data for training.
That combined Grok-Cursor operation is the business Jonas said the market may be pricing at zero.
Aug. 4 earnings and Aug. 6 share unlock are next tests
Two dates now stand out. SpaceX is scheduled to report quarterly results for the period ended June 30 on Aug. 4, with Elon Musk set to host the earnings call. The consensus cited in the article points to revenue of about $6.87 billion and a loss of $0.28 per share.
Two days later, on Aug. 6, roughly 910 million shares are due to be unlocked. Based on the article’s calculation, that would turn more than $120 billion worth of stock into shares that can be sold.
The stock’s current level has made that schedule more sensitive. SpaceX listed in June at $135 per share, raising $75 billion in what the article described as the largest IPO on record. The stock reached an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16. At Friday’s close of $115.07, it was down about 49% from that peak and about 15% below the offering price.
BlockTempo said SpaceX has gone through an emotional cycle in a little over a month that takes many public companies several quarters to experience.
Starship completes 13th test flight
On the operating side, SpaceX’s Texas Starbase site logged a milestone the same day. Starship completed its 13th test flight, deploying 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into orbit for the first time. The upper stage later splashed down in the Indian Ocean in what the article called the softest splashdown in company history.
The mission had been delayed three times. A July 16 launch attempt was halted by the automated system in the final seconds of the countdown after multiple engines failed to ignite properly. A second attempt on July 23 was scrubbed because of poor weather near Starbase. The vehicle finally lifted off at 6:51 p.m. Eastern Time on July 24, marking the first Starship flight since the IPO.
The mission profile was closer to an operational run than prior tests. It used a Super Heavy V3 booster for the first time. After stage separation at roughly two minutes, the booster made a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. The upper stage then deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, re-entered with improved heat shield performance, and splashed down intact in the Indian Ocean while continuing to transmit telemetry and video.
Starlink remains the easier business for the market to value
Jonas sees Starlink as the part of the company the market understands more clearly. The article said Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, equal to 61% of SpaceX’s total revenue of $18.7 billion. As of the end of March, it had 10.3 million paying users across 160 countries and markets.
The disagreement between Morgan Stanley and the market comes down to a basic question raised in the report: is SpaceX a space company with AI capabilities, or an AI company that also launches rockets? The earnings report on Aug. 4 and the share unlock on Aug. 6 are likely to shape the next answer.