SpaceX ended its first trading day last Friday at $160.95, fixing its market capitalization at $2.1 trillion. The listing still became the largest IPO in US stock market history, but the closing result did not satisfy all expectations built up before the debut. Research firm CFRA even assigned SPCX a “sell” rating, showing that the market was divided over how to price Elon Musk’s Mars-driven narrative after the first session.
That hesitation was overturned during Monday’s US trading session. According to Gate US stock market data, SPCX climbed steadily after the open and closed at $192.5, up 19.6% on the day. The closing price was also the intraday high. At that level, SpaceX’s market value rose to $2.519 trillion, making it the eighth-largest company in the world by market capitalization. Hyperliquid data showed SPCX trading above $214 in the premarket, keeping attention on whether the stock would extend Monday’s advance after Tuesday’s US open and overtake seventh-ranked Amazon by market value.
US-Iran Agreement Adds a Supportive Macro Backdrop
At the macro level, the understanding reached between the United States and Iran provided a positive setting for US equities this week. On June 15, Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been reached and that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened. Unlike previous rounds of one-sided rhetoric, this agreement was also acknowledged by Iran. On the same day, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding had been finalized and would be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday, June 19.
The understanding was later confirmed again by the Iranian president. US Vice President Vance said the agreement between the United States and Iran had been signed electronically over the weekend, indicating that the terms had already taken effect and reducing the room for either side to tear up the agreement. After the news spread, US stocks opened broadly higher. The Dow closed up 0.92%, the S&P 500 rose 1.65%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.07%.
Morgan Stanley said that a long-term agreement between the two sides, together with lower oil prices, would ease inflationary pressure. The firm also said US equities were shifting from a “one-man market” toward a healthier broad-based rally, with upside momentum no longer limited to the technology sector and gradually spreading to a wider range of cyclical industries. SpaceX was among the beneficiaries of this improved equity-market environment.
Retail Inflows Concentrate Heavily in SpaceX
From the perspective of market flows, SpaceX remained the stock most aggressively pursued by retail capital. According to Vanda Track, on June 16 local US time, SpaceX received about $93.8 million in net retail buying in a single day. That accounted for roughly 73% of total net retail inflows into US individual stocks that day. In other words, for nearly every $4 of incremental retail money entering the US stock market, about $3 flowed into SpaceX.
With demand for SPCX so strong, SpaceX’s underwriters exercised the over-allotment option in the IPO, also known as the greenshoe mechanism. They purchased an additional 83.33 million shares, bringing the total IPO issuance to 638,888,888 Class A common shares. The total amount raised in the offering increased to $85.7 billion, a scale that exceeded the over-allotment arrangements of almost all recorded technology-company IPOs.
Even with the additional shares, reports said most qualified US retail investors received only about one share in the SpaceX IPO allocation. Under an extremely tight float and a severe imbalance between supply and demand, concentrated retail buying can have a significant impact on the stock price. On June 16, influential US financial media outlet zerohedge wrote that once SPCX options begin trading, the stock price could rise to $400 because of a gamma squeeze effect and surpass Nvidia.
Gamma Squeeze Discussion and Institutional Commentary
A gamma squeeze is an upward spiral caused when options market makers are forced to chase and buy the underlying stock. SpaceX has a very low free float of 4.2%, while retail buying interest remains high. Retail investors who have not yet obtained SPCX shares may turn to relatively cheaper call options instead. If large amounts of money rush into call options, market makers must keep buying SPCX spot shares to hedge their risk, pushing the stock price higher and creating a positive feedback loop. The 2021 surge in GameStop (GME) is one of the classic examples of this effect.
Institutional views also emerged quickly after the listing. Before the US market opened on June 15, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan initiated coverage of SpaceX with an “outperform” rating and set a short-term price target of $190. After Monday’s US trading session, SPCX closed at $192.5, broadly in line with Oppenheimer’s target.
On June 14, entrepreneur, XPRIZE founder, and early SpaceX investor Peter H. Diamandis wrote that SpaceX is a “railroad in orbit” and would open the path to a multi-planetary human civilization, creating great wealth just as 19th-century railroads opened the American West. He predicted that SpaceX would merge with Tesla within the next year and become the first $100 trillion company. He also said that over the past decade, whenever he freed up capital from other transactions, he invested that money in Bitcoin, but now, whenever he has idle capital, he invests in SpaceX.
Diamandis added that the stock price would fall when locked-up shareholders are able to sell shares and some investors cash out, but he said his investment in SpaceX was not aimed at quarterly stock gains. Instead, he framed it as a bet on advancing an off-Earth economy. On June 16, well-known Silicon Valley investor Brad Gerstner described SpaceX in the latest episode of the BG2 podcast as an asset that institutional investors must buy and hold, citing the company’s position across both the space economy and the expansion of artificial-intelligence computing power.