SpaceX has yet to begin trading on the traditional market, but a linked product on Hyperliquid is already moving lower. The platform’s SPCX 5x-leverage perpetual contract has fallen for three straight weeks, trading near $157 on Wednesday. That is down about 27% from its mid-May launch level of roughly $216, after briefly reaching $230.
The decline does not mean traders are pricing SpaceX below issue. The company’s IPO is set at $135 per share, and SPCX is still trading above that level. What has changed is the expected premium for the first trading session, which is far lower than it was when the contract started trading.
The implied opening premium has narrowed sharply
Back in May, SPCX implied that SpaceX could trade about 60% above the offer price. By Wednesday, that implied premium had narrowed to around 16%. Traders are still assigning some upside to the IPO price, but the earlier enthusiasm has clearly faded.
That makes SPCX one of the few live indicators tied to SpaceX pricing before the stock actually opens. SpaceX chose a fixed-price structure at $135 per share, without a range that could move up or down during bookbuilding. In a standard IPO, bankers gather demand and adjust pricing as orders come in. Here, investors either accept the set price or pass.
SPCX is a cash-settled bet, not equity ownership
The Hyperliquid contract does not grant shares, allocation rights, or any claim on SpaceX. It is a cash-settled derivative designed to let traders speculate on where the company’s equity may trade once the listing begins. That distinction matters. Unlike an indication of interest in an IPO book, money in the perp market is already exposed to price swings before any official shares change hands.
Because of that, SPCX can serve as a read on pre-listing sentiment, but it should not be treated as the same thing as the IPO book itself. It reflects risk-taking in a leveraged crypto venue, not the formal allocation process.
Heavy demand in the book has not lifted synthetic pricing
Reuters reported that SpaceX drew more than $250 billion in investor interest for a $75 billion raise, making the deal several times oversubscribed. Even with that backdrop, SPCX has not been pricing a larger opening pop. The contract has moved the other way during the past three weeks.
There is a simple reason this gap can exist. In large IPOs, institutional buyers often place orders bigger than what they realistically expect to receive, especially in hot deals. Strong headline demand does not automatically translate into a richer secondary-market premium.
Crypto weakness may be weighing on the trade
The source also pointed to pressure across crypto markets heading into the IPO. Bitcoin remains well below its January high, and some investors may be raising cash to fund SpaceX allocations. If that is happening, the same risk environment could be weighing on SPCX trading.
For now, the synthetic market still points to SpaceX opening above $135, but by a much smaller margin than it did in May. Until the stock begins trading, SPCX remains one of the few public instruments showing how expectations are shifting in real time.