Bitcoin wallets that have held coins for at least five years are now spending just 962 BTC on a 90-day average basis. The figure, cited by analyst Darkfost from spent output data, tracks how much Bitcoin this older cohort is moving across the network. Compared with prior peaks in the current cycle, the drop is sharp and points to weaker sell pressure from long-term holders.
Long-term holder distribution has cooled
Darkfost said this market cycle saw one of the strongest periods of selling activity on record from veteran Bitcoin investors. Using the 90-day moving average, the metric reached 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. On some individual days, the amount moved on-chain rose above 10,000 BTC, 30,000 BTC, and even exceeded 142,000 BTC. After three major bursts over the last two years, spending by this cohort has become much more restrained.
That slowdown stands out because the current 90-day average has dropped to 962 BTC. Darkfost also noted that the highest cost basis among coins held by this group is around $63,200 per Bitcoin. Market prices are hovering near that level, yet many of these holders are still not selling. The reading suggests that older market participants remain patient.
Pressure appears heavier on recent buyers
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed to a different signal showing a split between newer entrants and long-term holders. According to Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s adjusted Net Unrealized Profit Loss, or aNUPL, was near zero a month ago and has now fallen to -0.14. With BTC trading around $62,500, that implies the average investor has moved back into unrealized losses.
aNUPL is used to show whether investors are sitting on paper gains or paper losses. Readings below zero can indicate growing market-wide loss pressure. Adler Jr. said the indicator stayed below zero for nearly half of the last three months, which in his view shows the strain is being carried mostly by investors who entered more recently and hold for shorter periods, rather than by a broad capitulation among long-term holders.
Halving-cycle pattern places focus on September
In a separate analysis, LP highlighted a recurring pattern tied to Bitcoin halving cycles. In previous bear markets, the final sharp decline arrived about 826 days after the halving. After that, the main bottom formed and prices moved sideways for roughly 70 to 110 days. In the current cycle, that 826-day mark lines up with July 6.
If the historical pattern repeats, a possible bottom could appear in early September. LP added one condition: the setup would carry more weight if Bitcoin can maintain higher levels into the start of July.
Analysts are watching liquidity below $58,900
Trader Titan focused on a lower price zone that has not yet been tested. On the quarterly chart, he identified an unclaimed low near $58,900. He also pointed to a fair value gap between roughly $49,000 and $58,900. Analysts say that area could become important when tracking a possible market bottom in the third and fourth quarters.