Bitcoin has likely already printed its cycle low, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, who said in a Friday note that $59,000 now marks the definitive bottom for the current market cycle. He said that level represents a 53% decline from Bitcoin’s $126,000 all-time high on Oct. 6, adding that the crypto winter is over and the market has moved back into a new phase of recovery.
CoinDesk data showed Bitcoin fell to $59,375 on June 5 at around 18:00 UTC. At the time referenced in the source material, the asset was trading just below $64,000. Kendrick also maintained his year-end targets of $100,000 for bitcoin and $4,000 for ether.
ETF redemptions and the SpaceX IPO are central to his call
Kendrick pointed to two main forces behind the recent market weakness. The first was a wave of selling in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, described as one of the sharpest bouts of outflows since those products launched. Since the second week of May, total redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion. He also said ETF holders have, anecdotally, been liquidating positions to raise cash for participation in the SpaceX initial public offering.
The source says SpaceX shares, linked to Elon Musk, began trading on Nasdaq on Friday at around $150 and were later about 26% above the IPO price. Demand tied to that listing has also shown up on digital-asset venues. On Hyperliquid, crypto contracts tied to SpaceX recently saw heavy volume and traded at valuations as high as 2.4 trillion. Kendrick’s view is that once the SpaceX IPO launched this Friday, that specific source of selling pressure may start to fade.
Oil prices and Treasury yields form the second pillar of the thesis
The second factor is macro. Kendrick said that if a G7-related peace deal between the U.S. and Iran proves real, it could keep oil prices from climbing higher. Lower oil prices could then help cool rising U.S. Treasury yields, which would ease one of the broader pressures weighing on crypto markets.
According to the report, Brent crude fell to about $87 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was around $85 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke of a likely peace deal with Iran. He later reversed course in a Truth Social post, saying the public version of the deal was not what had been agreed and warning Tehran’s officials to quickly “get their act together.”
Three signals he wants to see next
Kendrick said he will watch three markers over the coming days to judge whether the floor is truly secure. One is whether Monday brings an announcement that Michael Saylor’s Strategy, or MSTR, bought more bitcoin this week. Another is whether U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs return to net-positive daily inflows on Friday. The third is whether international oil prices keep moving lower.
His argument does not rest on a single chart pattern or one isolated on-chain signal. It combines fund-flow data, IPO-related liquidity rotation, and the link between crude prices and Treasury yields. The core call is direct: $59,000 is the cycle bottom for bitcoin.