Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said the crypto winter is over, arguing that Bitcoin’s slide to around $59,000 likely marked the low of the current cycle. He said Bitcoin had previously peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 before falling 53%.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin had recovered to roughly $63,484. Kendrick said the $59,000 area now looks like a firm floor for this cycle. He also kept Standard Chartered’s year-end targets unchanged at $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.
ETF Redemptions and Liquidity Demand Drove the Selloff
Kendrick tied the recent decline to several pressures hitting the market at once. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw sustained redemptions over recent weeks, with outflows reaching about $5 billion since mid-May. He said capital was also redirected to meet liquidity demand linked to the SpaceX IPO, pulling money away from risk assets, including crypto.
He added that rising geopolitical tension involving the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher, which in turn lifted US Treasury yields and weakened demand for speculative assets. That pressure has started to ease as oil prices stabilized and market sentiment improved.
What He Says Would Confirm a Lasting Recovery
Kendrick listed several conditions for confirming a durable rebound. ETF flows need to turn positive again after the recent stretch of outflows. Corporate treasury buying of Bitcoin also needs to continue among major holders. Oil prices, in his view, should fall further, helped by progress on the geopolitical front.
He also pointed to Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin as an important signal. A pickup in institutional demand and lower macro stress would add to that case. Standard Chartered had previously adjusted to higher targets, including $150,000, after market conditions changed, but the bank’s current stated year-end targets remain $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.