Standard Chartered says Ethereum looks similar to Amazon after the dot-com crash in 2001, arguing that ETH price action has drifted away from the network’s underlying health. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said the market is focusing on the drawdown while missing the strength in on-chain activity.
According to the report, ETH has fallen about 57% from its August 2025 high and is trading near $2,000. The ETH/BTC ratio is also down roughly 37%. Even so, Kendrick said Ethereum’s transaction volume and total value locked, measured in ETH, remain close to historic highs.
Price weakness and network activity are moving in different directions
The report draws on a 2018 comment from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos: “The stock is not the company and the company is not the stock.” Standard Chartered uses that line to frame Ethereum’s current setup, where market pricing appears weak while internal usage metrics continue to hold up.
Kendrick’s point is that network fundamentals are not reflecting the same deterioration as the token price. The report notes that Amazon stock has risen more than 1,000x from its 2001 low on a split-adjusted basis. In the bank’s view, Ethereum’s market price eventually catching up with its internal metrics is a matter of timing.
The bank keeps its 2026 and 2030 ETH targets
Standard Chartered reiterated its forecast for ETH to reach $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by the end of 2030. The thesis rests on three areas named in the report: stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and changes in the technology and regulatory setup around Ethereum.
The stablecoin market is currently valued at about $321 billion. The bank expects that figure to expand sixfold to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. More than 54% of stablecoin issuance is now on Ethereum, contributing close to one-third of the network’s transaction volume this year and about 60% of TVL.
Stablecoins and RWA are central to the bullish case
Beyond stablecoins, the report projects the RWA market to grow 50x to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. Ethereum currently accounts for 62% of RWA assets and 68% of active on-chain loans in that segment, according to the report.
Standard Chartered argues that more tokenized institutional and media-linked assets moving on-chain would lift Ethereum network usage. It also points to the planned Ethereum Economic Zone (EEZ) as a possible improvement to composability across protocols, allowing assets to move more freely inside the ecosystem while reducing dependence on cross-chain bridges.
US regulatory progress is part of the thesis
The report also mentions the proposed US Clarity Act, saying a clearer market structure for DeFi could help remove part of the uncertainty around institutional participation. That regulatory element is presented as one of the external supports behind the bank’s long-range ETH view.
The report’s position is straightforward: Ethereum price performance remains weak, but transaction volume, TVL, stablecoin issuance, and RWA market share continue to support Standard Chartered’s long-term bullish targets.