Standard Chartered has cut its 2026 price targets for both Bitcoin and Ethereum again, marking its second downward revision for Bitcoin in less than three months. In a note published Thursday, the bank said weaker macro conditions, softer expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, ETF outflows, and changing investor positioning were behind the move.
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, said Bitcoin is now expected to reach the revised target by the end of 2026. The new forecast is a clear reduction from the bank’s earlier view. It also follows a previous downgrade in December, when Standard Chartered had already stepped back from a more aggressive projection.
ETF outflows and Fed timing weigh on Bitcoin
According to Bloomberg, the bank’s more cautious tone reflects both worsening macro conditions and changes in market behavior during the past month’s sell-off. Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its October peak, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted sizeable net outflows.
Kendrick said slowing U.S. economic momentum and reduced expectations for Fed easing have put pressure on digital assets. Falling ETF holdings have also removed an important source of demand that supported earlier rallies. Rate expectations remain central. Investors now expect the first Fed cut to arrive later in the year than they had previously anticipated.
The note also pointed to uncertainty over future Federal Reserve leadership as another reason for caution around Bitcoin. Standard Chartered warned that if macro conditions keep deteriorating and investor capitulation deepens, prices could stay under pressure in the near term.
Bank says the current downturn is more orderly
Even with lower targets, Standard Chartered said the current decline appears more orderly than past crypto collapses. Kendrick highlighted improving on-chain activity data, which suggests underlying network usage is still healthy. The market has not seen major platform failures like those in 2022, when the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX triggered broad contagion.
The bank also revised its 2026 outlook for Ethereum, cutting its target for the second-largest cryptocurrency from an earlier projection. The note said analysts expect Ether could fall sharply before eventually reaching that level. Standard Chartered’s view is that healthy on-chain and network activity does not rule out deeper price weakness before any longer-term recovery.