Bitcoin traded near $66,000 on Thursday, and Standard Chartered turned more cautious on the near-term outlook. The bank said BTC could face more downside in the coming months, with a possible move toward $50,000, while trimming its year-end target to $100,000 from $150,000. The bank had previously set an even higher target of $300,000.
The report said Bitcoin has already fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high. At $66,000, it was only slightly above its year-to-date low of $60,000. That weakness has stood out as major U.S. equity benchmarks, including the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100, remained close to record levels.
Kendrick sees more capitulation ahead
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets, told The Block that digital asset prices may see more pain and a final capitulation phase over the next few months. He pointed to continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, a sharp decline in futures open interest, and the absence of a clear market narrative.
In his downside case, Kendrick said BTC could fall to $50,000 or slightly below, while ETH could drop to $1,400. He also said the macro backdrop was unlikely to offer support until the market gets closer to Kevin Warsh taking over at the Federal Reserve.
ETF outflows and shrinking open interest add pressure
Data from SoSoValue shows spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted outflows of more than $282 million this month. Over the last four months, those products have lost nearly $6 billion. The report described the trend as a sign that some investors are cutting crypto exposure and moving capital into a stronger stock market.
Derivatives data has weakened as well. Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to $44 billion from last year’s high of $96 billion. Falling open interest usually points to traders reducing positions and a lower level of market leverage.
$60,000 remains the key level on the chart
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has been trending lower for months and has already slipped below its 50-week and 100-week exponential moving averages. At the same time, the Average Directional Index, or ADX, has risen to 30, a sign that the downtrend is gaining strength.
Based on the technical setup cited in the report, the first downside level to watch is still $60,000. A break below that area would open the way to $50,000, matching Standard Chartered’s bearish near-term view.